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Senin, 25 Februari 2013

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies


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EURO
The pair stabilized this week below key support level of the ascending channel which was broken earlier, as Linear Regression Indicators are trading negatively. The abovementioned forces us to think that the downside move might extend to achieve further targets of the AB=CD bearish harmonic Pattern. The pair might touch 1.3080 levels during this week as the bearish move might extend reaching the psychological level 1.3000 or more. Stability below 1.3270 levels keeps the possibility of a downside move valid.
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1.2905 and key resistance at 1.3355.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 1.3990 as far as areas of 1.3350 remains intact.
Support: 1.3170, 1.3120, 1.3080, 1.3030, 1.3000
Resistance:
1.3235, 1.3275, 1.3305, 1.3355, 1.3405
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair below 1.3235 targeting 1.3120, 1.3080 then 1.3000 and stop-loss with four-hour closing above 1.3305 might be appropriate

 
GBP
The pair broke 61.8% correction at 1.5180 levels shown on the graph increasing negativity, which might push the pair more to the downside towards 78.6% correction at 1.4760 levels during the upcoming session. Trading below 1.5300 levels with weekly closing is considered negative, but we prefer to see the pair stable below 1.5225 levels to accelerate the downside move. The opening of this week with a sharp decline formed a price gap which makes risk/rewards ratios inappropriate to take a position. The previously mentioned forces us to remain neutral despite our expectations to extend the overall bearish move.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.4760 and key resistance at 1.5475.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 remains intact.
Support: 1.5130, 1.5080, 1.5000, 1.4940, 1.4895
Resistance:
1.5225, 1.5300, 1.5385, 1.5415, 1.5485
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral for now awaiting more confirmations for the next move

 
JPY
The pair moved to the upside with this week’s opening, but it wasn’t able to push the pair to stabilize above resistance level 94.50. Meanwhile, the pair is proving stability above Linear Regression Indicators again forcing us to remain neutral in our weekly report. The upside move needs stability above 94.50 levels while the bearish move return requires stability below Linear Regression Indicators to break the ascending channel.
The trading range for today is among key support at 90.40 and key resistance at 95.50.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 100.00 as far as areas of 84.00 remain intact.
Support: 94.15, 93.65, 93.05, 92.50, 92.05
Resistance:
94.55, 95.00, 95.50, 95.85, 96.70
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral for now awaiting more confirmations for the next move

 
CHF
The pair is gradually moving to the upside as the positive technical catalysts still dominates the pair and might help it to touch 0.9375 levels in an attempt to breach it confirming another ascending wave. Momentum indicators are showing overbought signals; meanwhile Linear Regression Indicators are positive and trading above 0.9235 with daily closing will extend the upside move this week.
The trading range for today is among key support at 0.9200 and key resistance at 0.9515.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside stable at levels 0.9775 targeting 0.8860.
Support: 0.9280, 0.9235, 0.9200, 0.9170, 0.9155
Resistance:
0.9375, 0.9425, 0.9460, 0.9490, 0.9515
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 0.9280 targeting 0.9375, 0.9460 then 0.9515 and stop-loss with four-hour closing below 0.9200 might be appropriate

 
CAD
The pair rose and is trading above 1.0355 levels indicating that the harmonic formation shown on the graph might be formed. Momentum indicators are showing overbought signals but we will ignore them unless level 1.0120 was broken. Stability above 1.0055 levels keeps the positive possibility, but as we referred earlier stability above 1.0120 levels is important to cancel any overbought affect.
The trading range for this week is between the key support at 1.0055 and the key resistance at 1.0440.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside with steady daily closing below levels 1.0125 targeting 0.9400.
Support: 1.0205, 1.0165, 1.0120, 1.0085, 1.0055
Resistance:
1.0290, 1.0310, 1.0355, 1.0420, 1.0440
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 1.0205 targeting 1.0290, 1.0310 then 1.0355 and stop-loss with four-hour closing below 1.0120 might be appropriate this week

 
AUD
The pair is trading between 61.8% correction from the upside and 78.6% correction from the downside at 1.0320 and 1.0245 levels. Meanwhile, we find the pair trading between Linear Regression Indicator 34 and 55. Such case makes risk/rewards ratios inappropriate and the trend unclear, forcing us to remain neutral in our weekly report waiting for confirmation signals.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.0085 and key resistance at 1.0440.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside with steady daily closing below levels 1.0710 targeting 0.9400.
Support: 1.0245, 1.0220, 1.0200, 1.0165, 1.0135
Resistance:
1.0320, 1.0345, 1.0385, 1.0400, 1.0440
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral for now awaiting more confirmations for the next move

 
NZD
The pair dropped but is still limited above key support level of the ascending channel. But with that, we find that the pair is stable below Linear Regression Indicators; therefore the pair should stabilize above 0.8415 levels to support the return of the upside move. Anyhow, we will stay positive unless the pair broke 0.8270 levels.
The trading range for this week might be among key support at 0.8200 and key resistance at 0.8535.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside with steady daily closing above 0.8130 targeting 0.8845.
Support: 0.8355, 0.8310, 0.8270, 0.8225, 0.8200
Resistance:
0.8385, 0.8415, 0.8450, 0.8480, 0.8500
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 0.8355 targeting 0.8415, 0.8480 then 0.8535 and stop-loss with four-hour closing below 0.8270 might be appropriate

Jumat, 15 Februari 2013

Daily Outlook GBP/USD

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.16; (P) 144.27; (R1) 144.97; More....
The pull back from 147.97 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 140.48) and below. Though, we'd expect strong support from 139.25 (38.2% retracement of 125.67 to 147.97 at 139.45 and bring rebound. Recent rally is still expected to continue after the corrective price actions complete. Break of 147.97 will target 150 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has completed at 116.83 already. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). But rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart