Buffett Rolls the Dice

Placing one’s chips on the “Don’t Pass” line when Warren Buffett holds the dice may seem ill-advised, but we’re not so sure about that $5 billion bet he just made on Bank of America.  The news media inferred with all its might that it was a vote of confidence — not only in B of A, but in the U.S. banking system. Yeah, well, maybe. But it would be just like Buffett to make the kind of deal that will return all of his capital come hell or high water while allowing him to reap a windfall if the bank should rise from the grave.  In the meantime, the six percent dividend he’ll be collecting each year is a lot better than most hedge funds have been doing lately. 

Buffett could also become the bank’s biggest shareholder if he is able to exercise warrants to purchase 700 million shares of common stock for $7.14 a share over the next ten years.  Had he been able to do so yesterday, it would have been quite a score – worth about $357 million in instant profits — since mere news of the deal caused B of A shares to gap up to $8.80 a share on the NYSE opening.  The stock had settled the night before at $6.99 after trading as low as $6.01 earlier in the week.  The hysterical leap in BAC’s price was undoubtedly due to short covering, since it’s hard to imagine anyone but bears in a nasty squeeze paying a 47% premium for the stock just because Buffett had signed on.  

For all we know, he shares our opinion that B of A, like all of the other money center banks, could conceivably fail.  All that’s needed to make it happen, as Buffett must know, is for confidence in Federal Reserve notes – i.e., the stuff we carry in our wallets – to fail. Is that day coming? No one can say for certain, but it seems no worse than an even-money bet to us right now.  More immediately, though, look for the press to shill the supposed symbolism of Buffett’s banking play.  “Warren Buffett comes to the  rescue again,” was how ABC news led the story, while MSNBC anchor Brian Williams fatuously described the Sage of Omaha as “the one man rich enough, and influential enough, to save a bank.” As indeed he may have, even if just temporarily.  It was only a couple of days ago that B of A stock nearly slipped below $6 for the first time in decades. 

But for Buffett to realize a fat capital gain, B of A will need to figure out how to grow its business.  It was easy enough for the big banks to fake good health a few years ago, when the Fed allowed them to dump their toxic loans into the still-nebulous limbo of the central bank’s digital vault. But if there is a sound way to actually grow banking business in the midst of the current real estate depression, we can’t imagine what it would be. 

Buffett himself was not pressed for his thoughts on this, but we’d be interested to hear them.  Surely he has some great ideas, right? In the meantime, the news media accepted at face value Buffett’s white lie that he did the deal because B of A is a “strong, well-led company.”  If that is a fact, then investors who have allowed the stock to fall from a high of $55 toward the zero axis in recent months have yet to discover it.

From a technical standpoint, we have B of A shares falling below zero.  While this is not technically possible, it is the same result we got a few years ago when we performed a similar analysis on the shares of Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros before they crashed.

by Rick Ackerman on August 26, 2011 3:19 am GMT · 

Degrees

When numbering and lettering waves, the scheme shown below is recommended to differentiate the degrees of waves in the stock market's progression:

The most desirable form for a scientist is usually something like 1₁, 1₂, 1₃, 1₄, 1₅, etc., with subscripts denoting degree, but it's a nightmare to read such notations on a chart. The above table provides for rapid visual orientation. Charts may also use color as an effective device for differentiating degree.

In Elliott's suggested terminology, the term "Cycle" is used as a name denoting a specific degree of wave and is not intended to imply a cycle in the typical sense. The same is true of the term "Primary," which in the past has been used loosely by Dow Theorists in phrases such as "primary swing" or "primary bull market." The specific terminology is not critical to the identification of relative degrees, and the authors have no argument with amending the terms, although out of habit we have become comfortable with Elliott's nomenclature.

The precise identification of wave degree in "current time" application is occasionally one of the difficult aspects of the Wave Principle. Particularly at the start of a new wave, it can be difficult to decide what degree the initial smaller subdivisions are. The main reason for the difficulty is that wave degree is not based upon specific price or time lengths. Waves are dependent upon form, which is a function of both price and time. The degree of a form is determined by its size and position relative to component, adjacent and encompassing waves.

This relativity is one of the aspects of the Wave Principle that make real time interpretation an intellectual challenge. Fortunately, the precise degree is usually irrelevant to successful forecasting since it is relative degree that matters most. Another challenging aspect of the Wave Principle is the variability of forms, as described through Lesson 9 of this course.

Kesempatan BELI !! Emas Akan Mencoba Level $1.720 per troy once,

Monexnews - Setelah berhasil menembus level $1,800/ons, selanjutnya untuk jangka pendek emas menuju level $1,720/ons, menurut Barclays Capital. Hari Rabu (24/06) logam mulia anjlok lebih dari 4% terkait keraguan investor mengenai tindakan Fed untuk sinyal stimulus baru.

Untuk jangka panjang, analis dan trader memperkirakan outlook emas masih bullish dikarenakan ketidak pastian pertumbuhan ekonomi global dan masalah hutang zona Eropa. Spot emas bergerak tipis di $1,754/ons, naik $3.20 dari level penutupan. Sementara harga perak akan terkoreksi lebih agresif dari perkiraan," katanya. Perak telah menembus level di bawah $39.75/ons potensi pelemahan selanjutnya di $37.50/ons. Spot perak di $39.67/ons, turun dua sen dari level penutupan.

 

Emas Stabil Setelah Sell-Off; CME Naikkan Marjin

Monexnews - Emas bertahan stabil pada hari Kamis setelah penurunan tajam harga pada sesi sebelumnya karena investor membuang aset safe haven tersebut, sementara kenaikan margin dalam emas COMEX lebih lanjut dapat membebani sentimen. Spot emas diperdagangkan sedikit berubah pada $1,748.99 per troy ounce, setelah membukukan penurunan terburuk hariannya sejak Desember 2008 dengan penurunan sebesar 4.3 persen pada hari Rabu.
Emas AS turun tipis 0.2 persen menjadi $1.753.
Di tengah gejolak pasar, CME Group menaikkan persyaratan margin untuk kontrak berjangka emas di COMEX sebesar 27 persen, kenaikan terbesar dalam lebih dari dua setengah tahun dan kenaikan keduanya di bulan ini.
Pesanan baru untuk barang tahan lama AS naik untuk periode bulan Juli, menawarkan harapan perekonomian yang sakit bisa menghindari resesi kedua meskipun ukuran dari pengeluaran bisnis dan resiko kejatuhan masih bertahan di pasar keuangan

Wave Numbers

Number of Waves at Each Degree Impulse + Correction = Cycle Largest waves 1+1=2 Largest subdivisions 5+3=8 Next subdivisions 21+13=34 Next subdivisions 89+55=144 As with Figures 1-2 and 1-3 in Lesson 2, neither does Figure 1-4 imply finality. As before, the termination of yet another eight wave movement (five up and three down) completes a cycle that automatically becomes two subdivisions of the wave of next higher degree. As long as progress continues, the process of building to greater degrees continues. The reverse process of subdividing into lesser degrees apparently continues indefinitely as well. As far as we can determine, then, all waves both have and are component waves. Elliott himself never speculated on why the market's essential form was five waves to progress and three waves to regress. He simply noted that that was what was happening. Does the essential form have to be five waves and three waves? Think about it and you will realize that this is the minimum requirement for, and therefore the most efficient method of, achieving both fluctuation and progress in linear movement. One wave does not allow fluctuation. The fewest subdivisions to create fluctuation is three waves. Three waves in both directions does not allow progress. To progress in one direction despite periods of regress, movements in the main trend must be at least five waves, simply to cover more ground than the three waves and still contain fluctuation. While there could be more waves than that, the most efficient form of punctuated progress is 5-3, and nature typically follows the most efficient path. Variations on the Basic Theme The Wave Principle would be simple to apply if the basic theme described above were the complete description of market behavior. However, the real world, fortunately or unfortunately, is not so simple. From here through Lesson 15, we will fill out the description of how the market behaves in reality. That's what Elliott set out to describe, and he succeeded in doing so. WAVE DEGREE All waves may be categorized by relative size, or degree. Elliott discerned nine degrees of waves, from the smallest wiggle on an hourly chart to the largest wave he could assume existed from the data then available. He chose the names listed below to label these degrees, from largest to smallest: Grand Supercycle Supercycle Cycle Primary Intermediate Minor Minute Minuette Subminuette It is important to understand that these labels refer to specifically identifiable degrees of waves. For instance, whenwe refer to the U.S. stock market's rise from 1932, we speak of it as a Supercycle with subdivisions as follows: 1932-1937 the first wave of Cycle degree 1937-1942 the second wave of Cycle degree 1942-1966 the third wave of Cycle degree 1966-1974 the fourth wave of Cycle degree 1974-19?? the fifth wave of Cycle degree Cycle waves subdivide into Primary waves that subdivide into Intermediate waves that in turn subdivide into Minor and sub-Minor waves. By using this nomenclature, the analyst can identify precisely the position of a wave in the overall progression of the market, much as longitude and latitude are used to identify a geographical location. To say, "the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in Minute wave v of Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (3) of Primary wave [5] of Cycle wave I of Supercycle wave (V) of the current Grand Supercycle" is to identify a specific point along the progression of market history.

Wave Mode ( Lesson 1)

---

There are two modes of wave development: motive and corrective. Motive waves have a five wave structure, while corrective waves have a three wave structure or a variation thereof. Motive mode is employed by both the five wave pattern of Figure 1-1 and its same-directional components, i.e., waves 1, 3 and 5. Their structures are called "motive" because they powerfully impel the market. Corrective mode is employed by all countertrend interruptions, which include waves 2 and 4 in Figure 1-1. Their structures are called "corrective" because they can accomplish only a partial retracement, or "correction," of the progress achieved by any preceding motive wave. Thus, the two modes are fundamentally different, both in their roles and in their construction, as will be detailed throughout this course.

R.N. Elliott pointed out that the stock market unfolds according to a basic rhythm or pattern of five waves up and three waves down to form a complete cycle of eight waves. The pattern of five waves up followed by three waves down is depicted in Figure 1-2.

Figure 1-2

One complete cycle consisting of eight waves, then, is made up of two distinct phases, the motive phase (also called a "five"), whose subwaves are denoted by numbers, and the corrective phase (also called a "three"), whose subwaves are denoted by letters. The sequence a, b, c corrects the sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in Figure 1-2.

At the terminus of the eight-wave cycle shown in Figure 1-2 begins a second similar cycle of five upward waves followed by three downward waves. A third advance then develops, also consisting of five waves up. This third advance completes a five wave movement of one degree larger than the waves of which it is composed. The result is as shown in Figure 1-3 up to the peak labeled (5).

USD/JPY Tunggu Intervensi, Minyak Siap Rebound (22-26 Agustus 2011)

USD/JPY
Pekan lalu, USD/JPY mencetak rekor terendah pada level 75.95 sebelum akhirnya kembali menguat karena intervensi Bank of Japan. Sulit untuk mengukur harga terendah, namun Kami melihat peluang kenaikan cepat ke 80.00 kapan saja jika intervensi kembali terjadi. Kami memilih posisi beli USD/JPY disertai pengelolaan resiko untuk membidik harga lebih tinggi.

EUR/USD
Euro sekarang bersiap diperdagangkan pada area bullish antara 1.4270-1.4520. Meski Kami tidak melihat eskalasi lebih tinggi, faktor fundamental yang dihadirkan oleh petinggi Eropa bisa menggiring EUR/USD ke sekitar 1.4600. Di lain pihak, Kami mempersiapkan proyeksi bearish hanya jika harga turun dan bertahan dekat 1.4270 lagi!

GBP/USD
Poundsterling menunjukkan sinyal reversal turun yang kuat setelah menyentuh 1.6618 hari Jumat lalu (19/08). Kami memperkirakan konsolidasi sideway terjadi pekan ini dengan bias sentimen bearish. Range perdagangan terbatas antara support 1.6300 dan kisaran tinggi 1.6600. Abaikan proyeksi jual Anda bila GBP/USD merangsek ke atas 1.6618 lagi!

MINYAK MENTAH
Harga minyak mentah WTI turun tajam hari Jumat (19/08) akibat kecemasan soal permintaan di tengah perlambatan ekonomi. Pekan lalu, minyak diperdagangkan antara 79.36-88.97 kemudian bertengger di kisaran rendah pada akhir pekan. Untuk pekan ini, Kami melihat kemungkinan rebound teknikal namun investor pembeli harus mampu mengontrol resiko di kisaran rendah. Level support terlihat kuat di sekitar 80.00, sementara range pergerakan bisa kembali ke area 87.50.


EMAS
Emas menembus harga tertinggi dalam sejarah pada level 1877.90 akibat ketidakpastian dan perlambatan ekonomi. Hingga sekarang, emas sudah membentuk support baru di 1810.00, yang kemungkinan bisa diuji dalam waktu dekat. Untuk pekan ini, Kami memperkirakan emas diperdagangkan sideways. Pergerakan naik dapat menguji area tinggi 1880.00 sebelum terkoreksi kembali. Jika harga naik secara cepat, maka dibutuhkan pengamatan teknikal untuk menyimpulkan kelanjutannya. Kecuali, indeks saham global kembali anjlok dan memicu ketakutan sehingga emas kembali diminati.


Disclaimer: This report is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

Essential Design

The market's compound construction is such that two waves of a particular degree subdivide into eight waves of the next lower degree, and those eight waves subdivide in exactly the same manner into thirty-four waves of the next lower degree. The Wave Principle, then, reflects the fact that waves of any degree in any series always subdivide and re-subdivide into waves of lesser degree and simultaneously are components of waves of higher degree. Thus, we can use Figure 1-3 to illustrate two waves, eight waves or thirty-four waves, depending upon the degree to which we are referring.

Now observe that within the corrective pattern illustrated as wave [2] in Figure 1-3, waves (a) and (c), which point downward, are composed of five waves: 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Similarly, wave (b), which points upward, is composed of three waves: a, b and c. This construction discloses a crucial point: that motive waves do not always point upward, and corrective waves do not always point downward. The mode of a wave is determined not by its absolute direction but primarily by its relative direction. Aside from four specific exceptions, which will be discussed later in this course, waves divide in motive mode (five waves) when trending in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree of which it is a part, and in corrective mode (three waves or a variation) when trending in the opposite direction. Waves (a) and (c) are motive, trending in the same direction as wave [2]. Wave (b) is corrective because it corrects wave (a) and is countertrend to wave [2]. In summary, the essential underlying tendency of the Wave Principle is that action in the same direction as the one larger trend develops in five waves, while reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves, at all degrees of trend.

*Note: For this course, all Primary degree numbers and letters normally denoted by circles are shown with brackets.

Essential Concepts

Figure 1-4

The phenomena of form, degree and relative direction are carried one step further in Figure 1-4. This illustration reflects the general principle that in any market cycle, waves will subdivide as shown in the following table.

The Wave (lesson 1)

Under the Wave Principle, every market decision is both produced by meaningful information and produces meaningful information. Each transaction, while at once an effect, enters the fabric of the market and, by communicating transactional data to investors, joins the chain of causes of others' behavior. This feedback loop is governed by man's social nature, and since he has such a nature, the process generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.

Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the linear causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Nevertheless, its movement reflects a structured formal progression.

That progression unfolds in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement. More specifically, a wave is any one of the patterns that naturally occur under the Wave Principle, as described in Lessons 1-9 of this course.

The Five Wave Pattern

In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4, as shown in Figure 1-1. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.

By. Elliot Wave International

Waspadai Koreksi Emas!

Monexnews - Emas dapat terkoreksi hingga $300 sebelum harga kembali naik, trend penguatan jangka panjang masih berlanjut dalam beberapa bulan dan beberapa tahun mendatang, menurut catatan direktur pelaksana American Precious Metals Advisors, Jeffery Nichols. Spot emas menyentuh rekor di $1,878.18/ons pada hari Jumat terkait hindar resiko yang meningkat dalam pasar keuangan global.

Resesi yang terjadi di perekonomian industri, pelemahan USD dan EUR, ekspansi pasar Asia dan permintaan yang meningkat menjadi beberapa faktor yang mendukung penguatan harga emas untuk jangka panjang. Spot emas di $1,868.50/ons, naik $15.40 dari level penutupan.(din)

Guidelines of Wave Formation

Although different in that their angle of trend is sharper than the sideways trend of combinations, double and triple zigzags can be characterized as non-horizontal combinations, as Elliott seemed to suggest in Nature's Law. However, double and triple threes are different from double and triple zigzags, not only in their angle but in their goal. In a double or triple zigzag, the first zigzag is rarely large enough to constitute an adequate price correction of the preceding wave. The doubling or tripling of the initial form is typically necessary to create an adequately sized price retracement. In a combination, however, the first simple pattern often constitutes an adequate price correction. The doubling or tripling appears to occur mainly to extend the duration of the corrective process after price targets have been substantially met. Sometimes additional time is needed to reach a channel line or achieve a stronger kinship with the other correction in an impulse wave. As the consolidation continues, the attendant psychology and fundamentals extend their trends accordingly. As this section makes clear, there is a qualitative difference between the number series 3 + 4 + 4 + 4, etc., and the series 5 + 4 + 4 + 4, etc. Notice that while impulse waves have a total count of 5, with extensions leading to 9, 13 or 17 waves, and so on, corrective waves have a count of 3, with combinations leading to 7 or 11 waves, and so on. Triangles appear to be an exception, although they can be counted as one would a triple three, totaling 11 waves. Thus, if an internal count is unclear, the analyst can sometimes reach a reasonable conclusion merely by counting waves. A count of 9, 13 or 17 with few overlaps, for instance, is likely motive, while a count of 7, 11 or 15 with numerous overlaps is likely corrective. The main exceptions are diagonal triangles of both types, which are hybrids of motive and corrective forces. Orthodox Tops and Bottoms Sometimes a pattern's end differs from the associated price extreme. In such cases, the end of the pattern is called the "orthodox" top or bottom in order to differentiate it from the actual price high or low that occurs intra-pattern. For example, in Figure 1-11, the end of wave 5 is the orthodox top despite the fact that wave 3 registered a higher price. In Figure 1-12, the end of wave 5 is the orthodox bottom. In Figures 1-33 and 1-34, the starting point of wave A is the orthodox top of the preceding bull market despite the higher high of wave B. In Figure 1-47, the end of wave Y is the orthodox bottom of the bear market even though the price low occurs at the end of wave W. This concept is important primarily because a successful analysis always depends upon a proper labeling of the patterns. Assuming falsely that a particular price extreme is the correct starting point for wave labeling can throw analysis off for some time, while being aware of the requirements of wave form will keep you on track. Further, when applying the forecasting concepts that will be introduced in Lessons 20 through 25, the length and duration of a wave are typically determined by measuring from and projecting orthodox ending points.

Analisa Mingguan (15-19 Agustus 2011): Minyak Suram, Emas Cemerlang

USD/JPY

USD/JPY terpuruk hingga ke level terendah 76.30 pada hari Jumat lalu setelah data US Consumer Confidence dirilis turun. Meski investor menantikan intervensi BOJ lagi, tekanan jual dapat memukul harga hingga 75.20 jika tidak ada berita dari Jepang. Untuk pergerakan atas, level 78.00 menjadi resisten kuat saat USD/JPY berbalik naik.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD bergerak di antara 1.4050-1.4400 saat dollar dan euro melemah satu sama lain. Kami melihat resisten berada di level 1.4300 dengan sentimen cenderung memicu aksi jual. Kami melihat penembusan level support 1.4050 akan menggiring harga ke target bawah 1.3900. Abaikan proyeksi jual Anda jika euro kembali naik ke atas 1.4300.  

GBP/USD

GBP/USD masih bertengger di antara 1.6110-1.6480 meski sentimen pasar berpihak ke euro. Kami melihat resisten kuat terbangun di level 1.6330. Sementara sentimen rentan memicu aksi jual saat euro bertahan dekat 1.6190 lagi. Abaikan proyeksi jual Anda jika EUR/USD tembus dan bertahan di atas 1.6330.

MINYAK

Minyak mentah WTI jatuh sampai ke level terendah 11-bulan pekan lalu setelah saham global anjlok di awal pekan. Menjelang akhir pekan, minyak mencatat rebound tajam hinggga ke atas 85.00 (penutupan Jumat). Pekan ini, Kami melihat minyak akan berkonsolidasi sideways antara 80.00-88.00 dengan kecenderungan bargain price di level bawah. Di tengah perlambatan manufaktur AS, Eropa dan negara emerging, permintaan minyak akan anjlok sampai akhir tahun.

GOLD

Emas menjadi primadona untuk melawan inflasi sejak suku bunga global belum naik. Harga emas menembus titik tertinggi dalam sejarah pada level 1814.40 d tengah pekan lalu. Emas mencetak kenaikan tajam di awal pekan karena penurunan saham global. Namun, logam mulia ini terkoreksi ke 1723.30 pada hari Jumat seiring kepulihan Dow Jones. Pekan ini Kami memperkirakan emas bergerak sideways antara 1720.00-1770.00. Lakukan pembelian saat emas menyentuh level tersebut di atas dengan tetap mengendalikan resiko. Dari aspek teknikal dan fundamental, kemungkinan kecil bagi emas untuk menguji level rendah karena support kuat berada di 1700.00-1710.00. Namun resisten atas 1770.00 dan 1790.00 siap diuji lagi oleh tren bullish!

Disclaimer: This report is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work. 

Analisa Mingguan (8-12 Agustus 2011): EUR Masih Buram, Emas Labil

Senin, 08 Agustus 2011 10:48 WIB

USD/JPY

USD/JPY melambung dari kisaran 77.00 setelah pemerintah Jepang melakukan intervensi jual yen. Pasangan mata uang ini naik ke atas 80.00, kemudian turun lagi ke 78.50. Kami melihat tren akan terjaga pada level 78.00 dan memulihkan bullish pekan ini. Kami masih menetapkan target kisaran atas antara 80.50-91.00 sebagai level jual kuat. Seandainya USD/JPY pecah dekat 78.00, maka abaikan proyeksi beli Anda.  

EUR/USD

EUR/USD mengalami pergerakan besar pekan lalu antara level 1.4050-1.4450, kemudian ditutup pada area 1.4380 pada sesi Jumat. Kami melihat resisten kuat antara 14340-14370, seiring tren masih menunjukkan bias untuk aksi jual. Pekan ini, support berada di level S1 (1.4140) dan S2 (1.4050). Kami masih melihat sentimen bearish dari faktor negatif soal hutang Eropa. 

GBP/USD

GBP/USD menguat dan ditutup dekat resisten 1.6400 pada sesi Jumat lalu. Kami memperkirakan tren berbalik turun pekan ini dan beralih jadi sentimen jual. Poundsterling memiliki resisten kuat di 1.6440-1.6470, seraya menanti tren pelemahan kembali menyentuh support bawah, 1.6230. Abaikan proyeksi jual Anda jika GBP/USD tembus ke atas 1.6470. 

MINYAK MENTAH

Minyak mentah WTI memecahkan support kuat 89.50 dan menguji titik lebih rendah, area 86.78 pada pekan lalu. Pasar mengalami kepanikan setelah muncul kabar pengesahan program pemangkasan budget senilai US$2.4 triliun. Sementara plafon hutang dinaikkan hingga 2012 tanpa petunjuk lebih lanjut. Pekan ini, Kami memperkirakan minyak berkonsolidasi kembali ke kisaran 90.00 hingga muncul petunjuk dari dari aspek fundamental. Jika minyak mampu menembus 82.80 lagi, maka tren pelemahan akan mencapai support ke dua di S2 (80.27), sebelum komoditas ini siap berkonsolidasi. 

EMAS

Harga emas menembus level tertinggi sepanjang masa di atas 1689.00 dan turun akibat data manufaktur Amerika Serikat (AS). Bunga obligasi jangka pendek berbalik negatif karena investor global memburu aset safe haven jangka pendek. Emas jatuh dalam pada hari Kamis lalu setelah merespon kabar ini. Kami memperkirakan emas bergerak antara 1640.00 dan 1685.00 di tengah kemungkinan profit taking. Pekan ini, emas akan sangat bergantung pada faktor fundamental guna menggiring harga ke atas 1700.00, khususnya jika isu hutang eurozone memburuk. Trader disarankan untuk waspada ketika tren memecah ke dua arah.

Disclaimer: This report is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work. 

Sektor Jobs Tanpa Prospek

 Jumat, 05 Agustus 2011 10:29 WIB

Monexnews - Sektor tenaga kerja Amerika Serikat (AS) belum menemukan momentum perbaikan hingga saat ini. Meski data tunjangan pengangguran semalam dirilis turun, pasar tenaga kerja masih lesu.
Klaim pengangguran mingguan yang berakhir 30 Juli tercatat sebesar 400.000 seperti dilaporkan Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS. Angka tersebut turun 1.000 dibanding revisi naik pada pekan terdahulu. Ekonom yang disurvei oleh briefing.com sebelumnya memperkirakan klaim jobless naik menjadi 405.000. 
 
Sebagai catatan, klaim awal pengangguran sudah bertengger di atas angka 400.000 dalam 17 pekan terakhir. Padahal idealnya data tersebut harus konsisten berada di bawah level tersebut guna mengkonfirmasi pertumbuhan ekonomi. "Pasar tenaga kerja dan ekonomi berjalan lambat hingga beberapa waktu ke depan," ujar Tim Quinlan, Analis Ekonomi Wells Fargo. Meski banyak pihak tidak melihat potensi resesi, tetapi kemungkinannya tidak pernah sebesar sekarang. 
 
Jumat ini, pasar kembali disuguhkan data penting dari sektor yang sama, tenaga kerja. Laporan jobs bulanan diprediksi menunjukkan 75.000 tenaga kerja baru di AS pada bulan Juli. Setidaknya, angka itulah yang dihasilkan dari survei CNN terhadap 19 ekonom. Adapun rerata pengangguran masih akan terpaku di 9,2%. 
 
"Perekonomian AS masih dipertanyakan dan perusahaan sangat mewaspadai kemungkinan terburuk," ujar Jim Baird, Kepala Strategis Investasi, Plante Moran Financial Advisors. Perlambatan ekonomi makin diperburuk oleh proyeksi negatif terhadap kinerja ekonomi semester II. Alhasil, rencana perekrutan SDM akan terhenti dalam beberapa bulan ke depan. (dim)  

Trading Dengan Double Top / Bottom

Double Top atau Bottom, merupakan pola -pola yang mengindikasikan kemungkinan reversal (pembalika tren). Mengapa demikian ? sebagai contoh pola double bottom, kita dpat melihat bahwa harga yang bergerak ke bawah namun tidak dapat meneruskan penurunannya karena banyaknya pembeli (buyer) yang membeli di harga bawah. Harga kemudian berbalik naik. tapi diatas sudah menunggu penjual (seller) yang siap menjual kembali dan mengakibatkan harga turun kembali mendekati harga terendah sebelumnya dan sekali lagi buyer masuk ke pasar membeli pada harga mendekati harga terndah tersebut. Hargapun kembali naik. Ini mengindikasikan kekuatan harga untuk turun semakin berkurang. nah, ada indikasi harga akan berbalik arah atau rebond.

Pola double top atau Bottom dapat kita gunakan untuk memberikan sinyal untuk membuak posisi sell ataupun buy. tentunya dengan membatasi resiko kita dengan meletakkan stop loss di sekitar area double top atau bottom.

1. Double Bottom mulai terbentuk pada gambar diatas. Titik 1 dan titik 2 merupakan double bottomnya. Sinyal unutk reversal atau buy mulai terbentuk.
2. Kita perhatikan double bottom membentuk area resisten pada saat harga rebound dari titik 1, sebelum akhirnya turun kembali ke titik terendah ke 2.
3. Kita dapat membuka posisi buy pada saat harga menembus area resisten. Stop loss kita letakkan sedikit di bawah bottom terndah (1 atau 2). Sementara target profit dapat kita hitung dengan cara mengukur jarak antara titik bottom 1 dengan area resisten. Jadi misalnya jarak antara titik bottom 1 dengan area resisten sekitar 40 pip, kita dapat meletakkan target profit sekitar 40 pip.

Pola double top pun dapat diberlakukan sama dengan double bottom, hanya saja pola double top unutk memberikan sinyal reversal harga akan jatuh atau terkoreksi.

Selamat mencoba..!!

Analisa Mingguan 1-5 Agustus: EUR ke 1.4500, Emas Coba ke 1650

-USD/JPY 

melemah minggu lalu dan turun menuju level 77.01 pada Jumat karena negosiasi Kongres AS mencapai kebuntuan. Kami melihat bahwa hasil dari kesepakatan Kongres AS akan menentukan tren pekan ini walaupun level support penting di kisaran 76.50 terlihat bisa ditembus. Harga harus kembali naik di atas 79.30 untuk memulai tren bullish.

EUR/USD 

stabil di atas 1.4250 dengan minat beli yang besar. Minggu ini, kami memperkirakan tren akan berkonsolidasi dan bergerak ke atas ke area 1.4450-1.4500. Pasar bahkan dapat bergerak lebih tinggi dari 1.4550 jika AS berhasil menaikan batas hutangnya. Namun, hati-hati terhadap penurunan drastic jika tren menembus dan bertahan di bawah 1.4280 pada minggu ini.

GBP/USD 

melonjak Jumat lalu karena kekhawatiran hutang AS dan di luar dugaan menyentuh level di atas 1.6450. Pasar terlihat mendapatkan resisten kuat di kisaran 1.6470 dan jika terus bergerak naik dapat menyentuh level 1.6550 minggu ini. Namun, hal ini bergantung pada faktor fundamental yang mempengaruhi pelemahan dollar AS. Sementara support kuat minggu ini di kisaran 1.6250.

Crude Oil

Harga minyak mentah WTI pecah di atas level 100.00 minggu lalu tapi dengan cepat turun setelah menyentuh level 100.60. Pelemahan terutama karena ketidakpastian keputusan AS dalam menaikan batas hutang dan gambaran suran GDP kuartal ke-2. Saat ini , pasar mendapatkan support kuat di kisaran 94.80 sambil menunggu berita fundamental pekan ini. Kami memperkirakan harga minyak mentah WTI dapat menyentuh lagi level bawah di kisaran 93.50 jika anggota parlemen AS gagal meraih kesepakatan kenaikan batas hutang minggu ini. Di sisi lain, pasar berpotensi berkonsolidasi ke atas area 98.60 jika tren teknikal terdorong oleh data ekonomi yang bagus.

Gold (XAU)

Harga emas menyentuh level tertinggi baru Hari Jumat di 1632.80 seperti perkiraan target pada laporan kami sebelumnya. Pasar mempunyai minat beli yang kuat ketika para investor global khawatir terhadap krisis hutang di AS dan zona euro. Pekan ini, kami melihat kemungkinan besar harga emas dapat menembus level yang lebih tinggi dan mencoba menyentuh area 1650. Namun, target akhir kami ada di 1680.00 untuk beberapa pekan ke depan jika banyak dana terus masuk ke emas sebagai aset safe haven. Emas berubah menjadi tren bearish jika harga emas menembus level S1 di 1600.00!. Support ke-2 di kisaran 1580.00, akan sulit untuk ditembus meski S1 sudah tertembus!

Disclaimer: This report is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work. 

Weekly Analysis of 1-5 August:: Eur to 1.4500, Gold 1650

USDJPY 

try to weaken last week and down towards the 77.01 level on Friday because Congress as the negotiations reached an impasse, we see that the congress as a result of the agreement will determine the trend this week, although the level of support important in the range of 76.50 looks impenetrable, prices have climbed back above 79.30 to begin a bullish trend. 

EURUSD 

stabilized above 1.4250 with a huge buying interest, this week, we expect the trend to consolidate and move up to the 1.4450-1.4500 area. the market can move higher even than 1.4550 if as successful raise debt limit, na, however, caution against drastic decline if the trend penetrate and survive under 1.4280 in the week.

GBPUSD

jumped last Friday as fears of debt as and unexpectedly touching above the 1.6450 level. market seen getting strong resistance in the range of 1.6470 and if it continues to move up to touch the 1.6550 level this week,  however, this depends on the fundamental factors affecting dollar weakness as, while the strong support this week in the range of 1.6250. 

CRUDE OIL

price of WTI crude oil broke above the 100.00 level last week but quickly dropped after touching the 100.60 level. attenuation mainly due to uncertainty in the decision as raising the debt limit and Suran picture of the 2nd quarter GDP. currently, the market is getting strong support in the range of 94.80 while waiting fundamental news this week, we estimate the price of WTI crude oil can be touched again below the level in the range of 93.50 as if lawmakers fail to reach agreement this week increase the debt limit, on the other hand, the market potential consolidate up area 98.60 if the technical trend driven by good economic data.

Gold (XAU)

Gold prices hit a new high Friday at 1632.80 as target forecast in our previous report, the market has strong buying interest as investors worried about the global debt crisis in the axles and the euro zone, this week, we look to the most likely gold prices can penetrate a higher level and try to touch the area 1650. na, however, our final target at 1680.00 for the next few weeks when many funds continue to go into gold as a safe haven asset, gold is turned into a bearish trend if the gold price through the levels at 1600.00 s1!