Analisa Mingguan (27 Juni-1 Jui 2011): Sterling Lemah, Minyak Bergejolak

Senin, 27 Juni 2011 10:25 WIB

Weekly Report 27 Jun 2011

USD/JPY

Pasangan mata uang ini terpantau kuat pada kisaran 80.00 pekan lalu. Pergerakan terjebak dalam range sempit. Kami melihat tidak akan ada gebrakan berarti sampai terjadi perubahan fundamental dari otoritas moneter Jepang. Investor menjauhi transaksi akibat cemas dengan intervensi tiba-tiba dari bank sentral. Resisten atas tetap di area 82.00. 

EUR/USD

Euro bergerak sideways dengan penguatan kecil meski Uni Eropa meloloskan bailout Yunani. Kami perkirakan EUR/USD konsolidasi pekan ini antara 1.4050-1.4450 sampai traders meyakini adanya breakout tren baru. Kami sarankan traders untuk bertransaksi dari titik paling ekstrim, dengan memakai level-level yang Kami sebutkan tadi sebagai kontrol resiko. 

GBP/USD

Poundsterling bersiap anjlok lebih dalam jika tren penurunan memecah 1.5930 pekan ini. Bila tidak, tren kemungkinan berbalik jadi koreksi kecil ke kisaran 1.6100, di tengah pelemahan jangka panjang. Seandainya menembus support 1.5930, GBP/USD bisa membidik area 1.5750, sebelum short-covering terlihat. 

GOLD

Harga emas mengalami koreksi dalam hingga ke bawah $1500 sebelum akhir pekan di tengah aksi jual global. Pekan ini, Kami memprediksi minat beli di kisaran 1480.00 seandainya tren terus melemah. Efek domino dari aksi jual rawan berlanjut untuk 1-3 hari ke depan, sebelum akhirnya harga rebound. Resisten terletak di level 1525.00. 

CRUDE OIL

Minyak mentah WTI mencoba pulih ke atas 95.00 di tengah pekan. Namun akhirnya anjlok lagi karena laporan persediaan dirilis naik. Dari sisi teknikal, Kami melihat minyak cukup terdukung di level saat ini (sekitar 89.50) dan siap pulih ke 94.00 dalam satu pekan mendatang. Tetapi keberlanjutan aksi jual di awal pekan dapat memicu penurunan harga dan mengincar siklus rendah di area 83.50. Long traders tidak boleh bersikukuh menahan posisi merugi karena minyak rentan anjlok di tengah ketidakpastian!

Disclaimer: This report is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.  
by : Dar wong

Determining Support & Resistance Levels on Charts

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In this educational feature, I'm going to tackle an issue about which several of my readers have inquired: How to determine support and resistance areas on the charts.

My favorite method (and I believe this the most accurate method) of determining support and resistance levels is to look at a bar chart and its past price history and then see at what price levels the highs, lows and closes seem to be touching the most. This method of determining support and resistance levels works on any bar chart timeframe--hourly, daily, weekly or monthly. Many times a bunch of highs or lows will be concentrated in a small price area, but not at one specific price. If that's the case, I will determine that area to be a support or resistance "zone." The one thing I will point out with determining support and resistance zones is that you don't want your zone to be so wide that it's virtually useless from a trading standpoint.

Major price tops and bottoms in markets are also major resistance and support levels. Unfilled price gaps on charts also qualify as very good support and resistance levels. Trendline support and resistance is also very useful to the trader. Projecting these trendlines to determine future support and resistance areas is extremely effective.

It's important to note that when a key support level or zone is penetrated on the downside, that level or zone will likely become key resistance. Likewise, a key resistance level or zone that is penetrated on the upside will then likely become a key support level or zone.

Another way to discover support or resistance areas is by looking at "retracements" of a significant price move--price moves that are counter to an existing price trend. These moves are also called "corrections." For example, let's say a market is in a solid uptrend. That uptrend began at the 100 price level and prices rallied to 200. But then prices backed off to 150, only to then turn around and continue to rally higher. This would be considered a 50% retracement of the move from 100 to 200. The 150 level proved to be solid support. In other words, the 50% retracement level proved to be a solid support level because prices dropped by 50% and then moved back higher. The same holds true for downtrends and "corrections" to the upside.

There are a few retracement percentages that work well at determining support and resistance levels. They are as follows: 33%, 50% and 67%. There are also two other numbers called Fibonacci numbers. (Fibonacci was a mathematician.) Those numbers are 38% and 62%. So, these five numbers are the best at determining retracement support and resistance levels. Most of the better trading software packages have these five percentages calculated in a tool, so that all you have to do, for example, is click your mouse at the beginning of the price trend and then at a high, and the percentage retracements are laid out right on a price chart.

Still another way that support and resistance levels can be identified is through geometric angles from a certain key price point. W.D. Gann, a legendary stock and commodity trader who died in 1955, is the most noted proponent of this method. He also used the same five numbers to calculate his angles. Again, the better trading software will provide "Gann fans" to plot the angles on the charts.

Finally, support and resistance levels for markets can be determined by "psychological" price levels. These are usually round numbers that are very significant in a market. For example, in crude oil, a psychological price level would be $20 per barrel, or $25, or $30. In soybeans, a price of $5.00 or $6.00 or $4.00 would be a psychological level. In cotton, 50 cents would qualify. Silver would be $5.00.

There are other methods traders use to determine support and resistance levels, but those mentioned above are the most popular.

by Jim Wyckoff

When You Trade and Invest, Why Use the Wave Principle?

 

The question: Why use the Wave Principle when trading or investing?

 

The answer: To avoid the herd that usually loses money in the markets.

 

The explanation: Herding makes it difficult to follow the most useful trading advice to buy low and sell high. More often than not, what really happens is that you hear about a stock or an index and decide to buy it because it's in the news. Why is it in the news? Usually because the price has been going higher. Lots of people in the financial media say that it's doing well, so you decide to "get in now" -- even though you know the shares are not at a low. After all, why would people talk up the stock if it were headed down? And you wouldn't really want to buy a stock other people were selling ... would you?

 

Once you buy, one of these three things usually happens:

 

1. The stock or index continues up for a brief time. You manage to hold on until just after it turns down, and sell so that you get out near the top. (You didn't buy low, but you sold it for more than you paid and made some money.) 

2. It goes up and then down, and then up and down again -- and again -- while you agonize. You read whatever you can find to help decide whether to stay in or get out. You finally get out about where you got in. (You neither bought low nor sold high, nor did you make any money.) 

3. It turns down after you purchase it. And it keeps drifting down until you can't stand it anymore. So you sell. (You bought high and sold low; depending on how long you held it, you lost a little or a lot of money.) 

The outcome: Either you win small, you come out even (except for brokerage fees), or you lose either big or small. What happened to the simple and elegant idea of buying low and selling high? Well, that idea vanished in the labyrinth of your quickly turning, emotional mind. When it comes to real-time decisions, it seems nearly impossible to do what you know you should do to make the most money. The irrational mind beats out the rational mind. Welcome to the world of herding.

 

Elliott Wave International's educational guru, Wayne Gorman, explains it this way in the Elliott Wave Crash Course:

 

"The process is being driven by an emotional, unconscious response by investors who look at the market subjectively and impulsively and who must make decisions under conditions of ignorance and uncertainty.… Most people tend to engage in what we call herding. They follow the actions of others, whether those others are on the right side of the market or not.

 

"The result is that prices move up and down according to investors' optimism and pessimism. Investors use the news to rationalize their emotional decisions, and most people lose money."

 

Even the big boys do it. Stock mutual funds tout their investing know-how, yet this chart shows that they also succumb to buying at tops when prices are high and selling at lows. It compares 40 years of the S&P 500's price moves with the changes in stock mutual funds' cash vs. assets ratio. When the percentage of cash is low, it means that the funds are buying stocks and keeping less cash (marked as "Bought" on the chart). When the percentage of cash is high, they are selling stocks and converting to cash (marked as "Sold" on the chart).

 

Gorman again: "Notice that funds are heavily invested in stocks at top of markets and little invested in stocks at major bottom. This pattern tends to repeat itself over time -- and results in losses."

 

The better way to do it: The Wave Principle, on the other hand, provides rules and guidelines to help you avoid the herd of investors, particularly as they react to the latest news. You can see patterns in price charts and decide when a market may be about to turn up or down; you can also plan when to trade or invest with some objectivity.

 

By Susan C. Walker
Wed, 22 Jun 2011