Emas Mulai Keluar Dari ‘Perangkap Tekanan’

Monexnews - Harga spot emas kembali pulih dari zona degradasi dan bangkit melesat di perdagangan Asia terutama terkait sejumlah buyers kembali mengambil posisi beli di level–level rendah menyusul koreksi emas dari rekor tertinggi yang di capai awal bulan ini.

Spot emas sempat di perdagangkan pada $1,645.45 per troy ons, turun $4.25 dari harga settle sebelumnya, namun pulih dari titik rendah hari ini di $1,632.40/ons.

Emas telah mendapat tekanan dari aksi profit-taking dan penguatan USD sejak perdagangan awal pekan, namun kalangan analis menuturkan minat investor terhadap emas kembali melonjak akibat berlanjutnya ketidakpastian makroekonomi.

Harga kemungkinan akan bergerak choppy dalam jangka pendek terkait pasar kembali sensitif terhadap berbagai berita yang tujuannya untuk memperbaiki ekonomi Eropa, namun analis menyebutkan pola bullish-uptrend emas untuk jangka menengah s/d jangka panjang sudah mulai terbentuk.(Dar)

Peluang Beli Saat Pasar Konsolidasi

Monexnews - USD/JPY masih bergerak di sekitar area 76.50 dengan support di 76.00. Kami melihat peluang bagus untuk membeli di sekitar  area tersebut dengan stop loss yang ketat. Potensi target terlihat di sekitar area 78.00 karena kondisi pasar masih sideways. Lupakan pandangan beli anda jika pasar menembus dan bertahan di bawah area 76.00.        
                                         
EUR/USD telah membuat level terendah baru di 1.3384 yang terlihat di bulan Januari lalu tapi tutup di 1.3470 akhir pekan lalu. Kami memperkirakan tren akan mulai berkonsolidasi minggu ini saat pasar bertahan di atas level 1.3500. Target kami berada di area 1.3950 jika tren bergerak sideways  sementara pasar masih mencerna penurunan minggu lalu. Lupakan pandangan beli anda jika tren menembus harga di bawah 1.3380.

GBP/USD jatuh ke level 1.5490 pada 30 menit terakhir sebelum penutupan Jumat lalu dan tutup di 1.5359. Kami percaya ini peluang bagus untuk mulai membeli pada sesi awal Senin ini dengan stop loss di area 1.5300. Pasar mempunyai potensi untuk berbalik naik jika support tetap bertahan. Kami telah mengidentifikasi target pertama di sekitar 1.5680 karena pemulihan teknikal.
 
Harga minyak mentah WTI jatuh pekan lalu di tengah kejatuhan harga komoditi dunia. Harga menyentuh level rendah 77.50 Jumat lalu dan tutup di 80.50. Kami melihat harga akan tetap tersupport di 75.50 minggu ini dan mengikuti pemulihan teknikal saham global. Kami juga melihat pasar akan bergerak sideways dengan resisten berada di 82.50.
 
Harga emas terjerembab dalam minggu lalu karena aksi likuidasi investor akibat ketakutan masalah hutang Eropa. Komoditi seperti emas dan minyak mentah akan jatuh karena ketakutan akan resesi ekonomi global. Harga emas bergerak dari level tertinggi 1826.70 hingga menghujam di bawah 1650.00 pada hari Jumat. Minggu ini, kami melihat support kuat akan muncul di sekitar area 1630.00 dan konsolidasi sideway kembali ke area 1720.00. Namun, tembus di bawah 1630.00 akan mencoba level bawah di 1605.00 jika  faktor fundamental membawa harga turun.

Disclaimer: This report is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

Analisa Mingguan (19-23 Sep 2011): Valuta Sideways, Komoditi Tunggu Fundamental

USD/JPY

USD/JPY masih belum mengarah ke arah mana pun setelah bergerak lagi dari 77.85 ke support 76.50. Kami masih memilih untuk masuk posisi beli baru di sekitar area support ini, dengan menggunakan stop loss ketat. Abaikan proyeksi beli Anda jika USD/JPY bertahan dekat 76.50 akibat data fundamental.

EUR/USD

Nilai tukar euro berkonsolidasi antara 1.3500 dan 1.3950 sesuai prediksi Kami. Pekan ini, Kami melihat pergerakan sideways masih menaungi EUR/USD untuk menguji 1.3700 (support 1) dan 1.3550 (support 2). Meski demikian, pecah di atas 1.3950, maka EUR/USD kemungkinan mencoba level lebih tinggi yakni kisaran 1.4100.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD sedang berkonsolidasi mengumpulkan tenaga untuk naik lebih tinggi pekan ini. Kami melihat peluang beli beli bagus jika poundsterling menguji kembali area 1.5740, karena berpotensi untuk meraih kisaran 1.6000. GBP/USD diperkirakan berada dalam tren sideways dalam beberapa pekan ke depan. Abaikan proyeksi beli Anda jika koreksi pecah sampai ke bawah 1.5740!

MINYAK MENTAH

Minyak mentah WTI pulih sedikit di sesi akhir perdagangan Jumat lalu. Kenaikan terjadi setelah data kepercayaan konsumen Amerika Serikat naik melampaui harapan. Dari sisi teknikal, Kami memperkirakan minyak terus anjlok pekan ini dengan resisten di sekitar 88.30. Pada dasarnya, minyak masih diperdagangkan antara 85.00-90.50 dengan bias rawan aksi jual karena penurunan permintaan global. Abaikan proyeksi jual Anda bila minyak merangsek ke atas 89.50.

EMAS

Harga emas bergerak tajam hari Jumat pasca rilis data kepercayaan konsumen Amerika Serikat yang kuat. Emas ditutup pada 1810.90 setelah naik dari level rendah pekan lalu, 1762.50. Kami melihat tren akan bergerak sideways antara 1760.00 dan 1845.00 dalam jangka pendek. Namun emas masih rentan koreksi jika pelemahan kembali mewarnai pasar. Kami rekomendasikan untuk bertransaksi dengan sabar dan waspada karena harga bisa membentuk double-bottom di area 1700.00 sebelum November.

Disclaimer: This report is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

Akhir Tahun, Emas Lampaui $2,000

Monexnews - Proyeksi pergerakan harga Emas di masa depan memang menarik untuk disimak. Berbagai ramalan dan harapan sejak lama dilontarkan banyak pihak, tetapi butuh waktu untuk membuktikannya.

Seperti apa yang diprediksi oleh beberapa analis Thomson Reuters GFMS. Mereka menyebut harga emas akan berada di atas $2,000 per ons di akhir tahun 2011. Namun tim analis Thomson Reuters mengakui bahwa prediksi tersebut memang terlalu konservatif untuk beberapa investor.

"Investor harus ingat kalau pada awal tahun terlihat beberapa profit taking saat harga jenuh dan saham masih menikmati momen kenaikan," ujar Philip Klapwijk, Analis Thomson Reuters. Masalah hutang eropa dan perlambatan ekonomi menggiring investor ke aset safe haven. Volume kepemilikan emas untuk kepentingan investasi idealnya mencapai 1,000 metric ton di semester II. Jumlah tersebut setara dengan nilai $60 miliar jika rerata harga emas diasumsikan sebesar $1,815 sepanjang periode tersebut.

Lebih lanjut, bank sentral antar negara juga mendukung lonjakan harga. Volume beli otoritas pemerintah sudah tercatat lebih dari 200 metric ton pada semester I, atau lebih dari dua kali lipat dibanding catatan sepanjang tahun 2010. Sementara pembelian emas untuk perhiasan juga masih naik meski harga sedang tinggi. Penjualan emas perhiasan semester I naik 7,5% dibanding tahun lalu. Padahal harga melonjak sampai 25% pada periode tersebut.

Di sisi lain, produksi pertambangan juga tumbuh 4,9% pada paruh tahun dan berpotensi untuk naik lagi. "Kenaikan volume produksi adalah peringatan bahwa kenaikan belum solid di jangka menengah dan panjang," tutup analis Thomson Reuters. Komoditi ini tidak akan kebal dari koreksi-koreksi kecil dari setiap kenaikan baru.

Eropa Membaik, Emas Lanjutkan Koreksi

Monexnews - Emas merosot lebih dari 0.5% setelah bursa saham menguat dan kurs euro bergerak naik. Beredar optimisme dari langkah pembuat kebijakan untuk membatasi krisis hutang wilayah Eropa.

Kegagalan emas untuk kembali mencapai level tinggi terkini juga memicu investor mengurangi posisi dan mengalihkan perhatian mereka ke beberapa data ekonomi dari AS. Terutama menjelang pertemuan Feds minggu yang akan memutusakan tingkat suku bunga. Spot emas turun $4.45 ke $1,815.65 per troy ounce, setelah merosot 0.7% di sesi sebelumnya. Kontrak emas AS turun $6.4 menjadi $1,820.10 per troy ounce. Saat ini, emas anjlok ke kisaran $1,780-an dengan potensi bearish yang masih terlihat. spot emas saat ini $1.777.00

Corrective Waves

Markets move against the trend of one greater degree only with a seeming struggle. Resistance from the larger trend appears to prevent a correction from developing a full motive structure. This struggle between the two oppositely trending degrees generally makes corrective waves less clearly identifiable than motive waves, which always flow with comparative ease in the direction of the one larger trend. As another result of this conflict between trends, corrective waves are quite a bit more varied than motive waves.  Further, they occasionally increase or decrease in complexity as they unfold so that what are technically subwaves of the same degree can by their complexity or time length appear to be of different degree. For all these reasons, it can be difficult at times to fit corrective waves into recognizable patterns until they are completed and behind us. As the terminations of corrective waves are less predictable than those for motive waves, the Elliott analyst must exercise more caution in his analysis when the market is in a meandering corrective mood than when prices are in a persistently motive trend. The single most important rule that can be gleaned from a study of the various corrective patterns is that corrections are never fives. Only motive waves are fives. For this reason, an initial five-wave movement against the larger trend is never the end of a correction, only part of it. The figures that follow through Lesson 9 of this course should serve to illustrate this point. Corrective processes come in two styles. Sharp corrections angle steeply against the larger trend. Sideways corrections, while always producing a net retracement of the preceding wave, typically contain a movement that carries back to or beyond its starting level, thus producing an overall sideways appearance. The discussion of the guideline of alternation in Lesson 10 will explain the reason for noting these two styles.  Specific corrective patterns fall into four main categories: Zigzags (5-3-5; includes three types: single, double, and triple); Flats (3-3-5; includes three types: regular, expanded, and running); Triangles (3-3-3-3-3; four types: three of the contracting variety (ascending, descending, and symmetrical) and one of the expanding variety (reverse symmetrical); Double threes and triple threes (combined structures).

Leading Diagonals

When diagonal triangles occur in the wave 5 or C position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. The characteristic overlapping of waves 1 and 4 and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The structure of this formation (see Figure 1-20) fits the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a "continuation" message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the ending diagonal. Analysts must be aware of this pattern to avoid mistaking it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves. The main key to recognizing this pattern is the decided slowing of price change in the fifth subwave relative to the third. By contrast, in developing first and second waves, short term speed typically increases, and breadth (i.e., the number of stocks or subindexes participating) often expands. Figure 1-20 Figure 1-21 shows a real life example of a leading diagonal triangle. This pattern was not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but has appeared enough times and over a long enough period that we are convinced of its validity. Figure 1-21

Analisa Mingguan (12-16 Sep 2011): USD/JPY Optimis, Emas Konsolidasi

USD/JPY

USD/JPY masih berkisar di area netral 77.50. Namun jika mampu naik hingga ke atas 76.50, maka USD/JPY bisa kokoh. Pecah ke bawah level tersebut, sama artinya dengan pergerakan bearish baru. Dari sisi teknikal, Kami memperkirakan pasangan valuta ini kembali naik secara gradual ke 80.00 dalam waktu dekat di tengah ekspektasi stimulus.

EUR/USD

Euro anjlok tajam hari Jumat (09/09) karena bereaksi terhadap kemungkinan default negara Yunani. EUR/USD turun ke bawah support penting 1.4830. Tren bullish hanya bisa terpicu jika EUR mampu naik ke atas level tersebut. Sementara koreksi terpicu bila euro menembus 1.4100. Meski demikian, Kami melihat kemungkinan EUR/USD menguji 1.3550 pekan ini sebelum rebound dimulai!

GBP/USD

Poundsterling jatuh hingga ke bawah 1.5910 Jumat lalu (09/09) dan menyentuh support kuat di area 1.5844. Kami melihat GBP/USD mengalami rebound pekan ini untuk naik hingga target pertama, 1.6100. Penurunan lebih lanjut dapat mencapai support 1.5780 bila kurs sterling tidak bisa terjaga di level 1.5844.

MINYAK MENTAH

Minyak mentah WTI ditutup pada 86.91 Jumat lalu dan membuat sentimen pasar jadi netral. Pekan ini, minyak dapat turun lagi menguji kisaran 84.32 di tengah isu default negara Yunani dan permasalahan Eropa. Secara teknikal, minyak tengah diperdagangkan dalam sideways besar antara 83.00 dan 90.00. Kemungkinan untuk menguji batas bawah tadi sangat terbuka. Abaikan proyeksi jual Anda bila harga merangsek ke atas resisten 90.00. 

EMAS

Harga emas turun tajam hari Jumat dari 1885.90 ke 1822.70 akibat kabar buruk soal hutang negara Yunani. Awal pekan ini, Kami memperkirakan emas berkonsolidasi sideways antara 1840.00-1870.00, namun terbuka peluang penurunan lebih lanjut. Seandainya pelemahan kembali terjadi, emas dapat mencapai target pertama Kami 1770.00. Abaikan proyeksi jual Anda bila emas berbalik dan bertengger di atas 1870.00.

Disclaimer: This report is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

Emas Bergerak Sempit

 Monexnews - Emas menguat di sesi Asia meski pergerakan emas masih terjebak di range sempit pasca telekonferensi antara Kanselir Jerman Merkel dan Presiden Perancis Sarkozy yang meyakinkan pasar bahwa masa depan Yunani berada di tangan negara zona eropa. Tadi malam emas tertekan akibat minat resiko yang meningkat setelah pasar saham ditutup di zona positif dan penguatan dollar AS.Data ekonomi yang mengecewakan dari AS turut mendukung permintaan safe haven. "Trend emas masih kuat," menurut analis Standard Bank, Walter de Wet. EUR/USD diprediksi melemah ke level 1,30. Investor Asia siap membeli emas saat berada di bawah level $ 1.820/ons. Spot emas di $ 1,820.80/ons, naik $ 4,70, perak di $ 40.69/oz, turun 6 sen, sedangkan platinum di $ 1.814/ons, naik $ 1 dan paladium berada di $ 721/ons, naik $ 3 dari penutupan sebelumnya.

Diagonals

Ending diagonals have occurred recently in Minor degree as in early 1978, in Minute degree as in February-March 1976, and in Subminuette degree as in June 1976. Figures 1-17 and 1-18 show two of these periods, illustrating one upward and one downward "real-life" formation. Figure 1-19 shows our real-life possible expanding diagonal triangle. Notice that in each case, an important change of direction followed.   Figure 1-17 Figure 1-18 Figure 1-19 Although not so illustrated in Figures 1-15 and 1-16, fifth waves of diagonal triangles often end in a "throw-over," i.e., a brief break of the trendline connecting the end points of waves one and three. Figures 1-17 and 1-19 show real life examples. While volume tends to diminish as a diagonal triangle of small degree progresses, the pattern always ends with a spike of relatively high volume when a throw-over occurs. On rare occasions, the fifth subwave will fall short of its resistance trendline. A rising diagonal is bearish and is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began. A falling diagonal by the same token is bullish, usually giving rise to an upward thrust. Fifth wave extensions, truncated fifths and ending diagonal triangles all imply the same thing: dramatic reversal ahead. At some turning points, two of these phenomena have occurred together at different degrees, compounding the violence of the next move in the opposite direction.

Emas Bergerak Di Teritori Positif

Monexnews -Sebagian besar logam mulia diperdagangkan di range ketat. Permintaan untuk safe-haven membantu membatasi pelemahan harga emas yang terus bergerak di sekitar teritori positif di awal perdagangan Asia.

Emas harus menembus level resistance kuat di $1,920/ons, menurut dealer Sharps Pixley yang bermarkas di London. "Namun jika emas terus konsolidasi, emas berpotensi untuk menguji level $1,950/ons, mendekati $2,000/ons," tambah Sharps Pixley. Sementara kekhawatiran mengenai kemungkinan default dapat memicu arus modal ke dalam aset safe-haven. Harga emas tertekan tindakan beberapa investor yang melikuidasi posisi long.


Spot emas naik $5.50 menjadi $1,839.70/ons, perak $41.13/ons, platinum naik $5 menjadi $1,816/ons, palladium di $722/ons. (din)

Diagonal Triangles

A diagonal triangle is a motive pattern yet not an impulse, as it has one or two corrective characteristics. Diagonal triangles substitute for impulses at specific locations in the wave structure. As with impulses, no reactionary subwave fully retraces the preceding actionary subwave, and the third subwave is never the shortest. However, diagonal triangles are the only five-wave structures in the direction of the main trend within which wave four almost always moves into the price territory of (i.e., overlaps) wave one. On rare occasions, a diagonal triangle may end in a truncation, although in our experience such truncations occur only by the slimmest of margins. Ending Diagonal An ending diagonal is a special type of wave that occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone "too far too fast," as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C wave position of A-B-C formations. In double or triple threes (to be covered in Lesson 9), they appear only as the final "C" wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. Ending diagonals take a wedge shape within two converging lines, with each subwave, including waves 1, 3 and 5, subdividing into a "three," which is otherwise a corrective wave phenomenon. The ending diagonal is illustrated in Figures 1-15 and 1-16 and shown in its typical position in larger impulse waves. Figure 1-15 Figure 1-16 We have found one case in which the pattern's boundary lines diverged, creating an expanding wedge rather than a contracting one. However, it is unsatisfying analytically in that its third wave was the shortest actionary wave, the entire formation was larger than normal, and another interpretation was possible, if not attractive. For these reasons, we do not include it as a valid variation.

Truncation

Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in Figures 1-11 and 1-12. Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave.
 

Figure 1-11

Figure 1-12

The U.S. stock market provides two examples of major degree truncated fifths since 1932. The first occurred in October 1962 at the time of the Cuban crisis (see Figure 1-13). It followed the crash that occurred as wave 3. The second occurred at year-end in 1976 (see Figure 1-14). It followed the soaring and broad wave (3) that took place from October 1975 to March 1976.

 

Figure 1-13

Figure 1-14

Perak Siap Uji Level $ 42.88

Monexnews - Perak secara umum masih berada dalam bias bullish. Saat artikel ini ditulis, stochastic dan CCI 4 jam memberikan indikasi bullish dan harga perak telah menguji resistance yang berada di 41.44. Bias saat ini adalah bullish di mana pecah ke atas resistance tersebut berpotensi memicu kembali momentum bullish bagi pergerakan menuju resistance selanjutnya di 42.88. Namun sebaliknya jika resistance itu bertahan dan sinyal bearish muncul dari stochastic dan CCI; meskipun saat ini peluangnya cukup kecil; maka koreksi bisa saja berlanjut hingga support di 40.00.

Berhati-hatilah jika support di 40.00 tembus, karena hal tersebut kemungkinan akan menyebabkan koreksi yang lebih dalam hingga ke 38.71.

( Eko Trijuni )

Emas Terkoreksi Meski Trend Masih Bullish

Monexnews - Emas secara umum masih berada dalam bias bullish meskipun koreksi yang terjadi cukup dalam. Saat artikel ini ditulis, harga berada di dekat support 1812.08 yang juga merupakan level Fibonacci retracement 50%. Stochastic dan CCI 4 jam terlihat mulai memberikan indikasi jenuh jual. Oleh sebab itu ada kemungkinan akan terjadi rebound hingga ke area 1869.53 jika harga tetap bertahan di atas 1812.08. Akan tetapi hati-hati jika tembus ke bawah 1812.08, karena kemungkinan akan memperdalam koreksi hingga ke support selanjutnya di 1754.62.

( Eko Trijuni )

Extension

Most impulses contain what Elliott called an extension. Extensions are elongated impulses with exaggerated subdivisions. The vast majority of impulse waves do contain an extension in one and only one of their three actionary subwaves. At times, the subdivisions of an extended wave are nearly the same amplitude and duration as the other four waves of the larger impulse, giving a total count of nine waves of similar size rather than the normal count of "five" for the sequence. In a nine-wave sequence, it is occasionally difficult to say which wave extended. However, it is usually irrelevant anyway, since under the Elliott system, a count of nine and a count of five have the same technical significance. The diagrams in Figure 1-5, illustrating extensions, will clarify this point.   Figure 5 The fact that extensions typically occur in only one actionary subwave provides a useful guide to the expected lengths of upcoming waves. For instance, if the first and third waves are of about equal length, the fifth wave will likely be a protracted surge. (In waves below Primary degree, a developing fifth wave extension will be confirmed by new high volume, as described in Lesson 13 under "Volume.") Conversely, if wave three extends, the fifth should be simply constructed and resemble wave one. In the stock market, the most commonly extended wave is wave 3. This fact is of particular importance to real time wave interpretation when considered in conjunction with two of the rules of impulse waves: that wave 3 is never the shortest actionary wave, and that wave 4 may not overlap wave 1. To clarify, let us assume two situations involving an improper middle wave, as illustrated in Figures 1-6 and 1-7. Figure 1-6 Figure 1-7 Figure 1-8 In Figure 1-6, wave 4 overlaps the top of wave 1. In Figure 1-7, wave 3 is shorter than wave 1 and shorter than wave 5. According to the rules, neither is an acceptable labeling. Once the apparent wave 3 is proved unacceptable, it must be relabeled in some way that is acceptable. In fact, it is almost always to be labeled as shown in Figure 1-8, implying an extended wave (3) in the making. Do not hesitate to get into the habit of labeling the early stages of a third wave extension. The exercise will prove highly rewarding, as you will understand from the discussion under Wave Personality in Lesson 14. Figure 1-8 is perhaps the single most useful guide to real time impulse wave counting in this course. Extensions may also occur within extensions. In the stock market, the third wave of an extended third wave is typically an extension as well, producing a profile such as shown in Figure 1-9. Figure 1-10 illustrates a fifth wave extension of a fifth wave extension. Extended fifths are fairly uncommon except in bull markets in commodities covered in Lesson 28. . Figure 1-9 Figure 1-10

Les

Saatnya Beli Saham Hong Kong!

Monexnews - HSI mengikuti gain pasar regional. Indeks naik 0.9% menjadi 19,745. Namun indeks kesulitan untuk menembus level 20,000, dengan volume perdagangan HK$5.01 miliar.

Setelah tertekan oleh pelemahan saham lokal bulan Agutus, Haitong Securities menyarankan investor Hong Kong untuk melihat prospek jangka panjang (sampai akhir tahun); "Ini saat yang tepat untuk membeli saham." Hang Seng diprediksi menyentuh level 25,800 sebelum akhir tahun. 44 dari 46 saham blue chips menguat, melambung lebih dari 2% diantaranya Bank of East Asia, Li & Fung, Unicom dan Hengan.  (din)

Analisa Mingguan (5-9 Sept 2011): Valuta Konsolidasi, Minyak Koreksi

USD/JPY

USD/JPY masih stagnan di sekitar level support 76.50 pekan lalu. Pelaku pasar memperkirakan intervensi lagi pekan ini, mengingat kurs yen sudah naik selama 3 bulan sejak lonjakan terakhir Mei lalu. Kami melihat support kuat di area 76.50 dan USD/JPY berpeluang rebound ke 80.00 karena berita fundamental. Abaikan proyeksi jual Anda jika USD/JPY menembus level tersebut di atas.

EUR/USD

Pekan lalu, EUR/USD turun dan menemukan support di area 1.4200. Kami memperkirakan tren berbalik naik dan memulai konsolidasi pekan ini. Kami membidik target di kisaran 1.4450 dalam 1 pekan dari koreksi alami euro. Abaikan proyeksi beli Anda jika EUR/USD terbenam ke kisaran 1.4160.   

GBP/USD

GBP/USD nyaman di garis EMA 200 pada level 1.6131 dan siap rebound. Berdasarkan studi teknikal, poundsterling akan mencoba kembali level bawah 1.6150 di awal pekan sebelum nantinya naik lagi. Kami memperkirakan konsolidasi terjadi dalam 1-2 pekan sebelum Sterling kembali menyambangi 1.6400.

MINYAK MENTAH

Minyak mentah WTI masih bergerak dalam tren sideways besar pada fase koreksi. Harga terpantau turun dari level tertinggi pekan lalu, 89.91, akibat kinerja ekonomi AS yang buruk dan stagnasi data pengangguran. Pekan ini, Kami memperkirakan minyak diperdagangkan lebih rendah seraya bergerak antara level 83.00 dan 90.00. Trader disarankan masuk posisi dari level paling rendah guna menghindari ayunan harga. Kami memilih untuk menjual di awal pekan pada kisaran harga 87.50, sambil diiringi oleh manjemen resiko yang ketat.

EMAS

Harga emas melonjak lagi pekan lalu akibat pesimisme soal outlook ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS). Alhasil, harga emas kembali ditutup pada level tertinggi mingguan pada hari Jumat. Investor sudah mencerna kabar kenaikan marjin yang diberlakukan oleh CME Group 2 pekan lalu sehingga emas kembali dibanjiri minat safe haven.

Pekan ini, Kami melihat tren melemah di kisaran atas dengan resisten 1900.00 membatasi pergerakan. Berdasarkan studi teknikal, emas berpeluang kembali ke Support 1 (1830.00) untuk melengkapi pola teknikal. Seandainya terjadi isu fundamental luar biasa, maka emas dapat kembali naik ke Support 2 (1810). Namun emas cenderung membentuk double-tops terlebih dulu di 1910.00 sebelum menapaki tren penurunan.

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Motive Waves (Lesson 2)

Motive waves subdivide into five waves with certain characteristics and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree. They are straightforward and relatively easy to recognize and interpret.
 

Within motive waves, wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1, and wave 4 never retraces more than 100% of wave 3. Wave 3, moreover, always travels beyond the end of wave 1. The goal of a motive wave is to make progress, and these rules of formation assure that it will.

Elliott further discovered that in price terms, wave 3 is often the longest and never the shortest among the three actionary waves (1, 3 and 5) of a motive wave. As long as wave 3 undergoes a greater percentage movement than either wave 1 or 5, this rule is satisfied. It almost always holds on an arithmetic basis as well. There are two types of motive waves: impulses and diagonal triangles.

Impulse

The most common motive wave is an impulse. In an impulse, wave 4 does not enter the territory of (i.e., "overlap") wave 1. This rule holds for all non-leveraged "cash" markets. Futures markets, with their extreme leverage, can induce short term price extremes that would not occur in cash markets. Even so, overlapping is usually confined to daily and intraday price fluctuations and even then is extremely rare. In addition, the actionary subwaves (1, 3 and 5) of an impulse are themselves motive, and subwave 3 is specifically an impulse. Figures 1-2 and 1-3 in Lesson 2 and 1-4 in Lesson 3 all depict impulses in the 1, 3, 5, A and C wave positions.

As detailed in the preceding three paragraphs, there are only a few simple rules for interpreting impulses properly. A rule is so called because it governs all waves to which it applies. Typical, yet not inevitable, characteristics of waves are called guidelines. Guidelines of impulse formation, including extension, truncation, alternation, equality, channeling, personality and ratio relationships are discussed below and through Lesson 24 of this course. A rule should never be disregarded. In many years of practice with countless patterns, the authors have found but one instance above Subminuette degree when all other rules and guidelines combined to suggest that a rule was broken. Analysts who routinely break any of the rules detailed in this section are practicing some form of analysis other than that guided by the Wave Principle. These rules have great practical utility in correct counting, which we will explore further in discussing extensions.

Emas Incar Posisi Puncak

Monexnews - Emas berpotensi menuju kisaran $ 1.930/ons lalu $ 1.970/ons, menurut analisis teknis Barclays Capital. Logam mulia menembus level resistensi psikologis di $ 1.900/ons, di sekitar level $ 1,912.29/ons pada 23 Agustus.

"Emas pulih dari level rendah, namun aset safe haven diantaranya emas masih mendapat keuntungan dari ketidakpastian global," menurut catatan Morgan Stanley. Data payrolls AS hari Jumat yang mengecewakan, diikuti oleh kondisi ekonomi Eropa yang lemah menambah kekhawatiran mengenai pertumbuhan ekonomi dan juga resesi. Prospek ekonomi yang suram turut mendukung emas yang dianggap sebagai alat penyimpan nilai terutama selama kondisi keuangan yang bergejolak. Spot emas di $ 1,897.80/ons, turun $ 2,50 dari penutupan lalu.

Barclays Capital mengharapkan perak akan mengikuti emas dan menguji level puncak di $ 44.23/ons. Target selanjutnya di $ 46/ons. Spot perak di    $ 42.87/ons, sama dengan level penutupan.

Wave Function

Every wave serves one of two functions: action or reaction. Specifically, a wave may either advance the cause of the wave of one larger degree or interrupt it. The function of a wave is determined by its relative direction. An actionary or trend wave is any wave that trends in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree of which it is a part. A reactionary or countertrend wave is any wave that trends in the direction opposite to that of the wave of one larger degree of which it is part. Actionary waves are labeled with odd numbers and letters. Reactionary waves are labeled with even numbers and letters.

All reactionary waves develop in corrective mode. If all actionary waves developed in motive mode, then there would be no need for different terms. Indeed, most actionary waves do subdivide into five waves. However, as the following sections reveal, a few actionary waves develop in corrective mode, i.e., they subdivide into three waves or a variation thereof. A detailed knowledge of pattern construction is required before one can draw the distinction between actionary function and motive mode, which in the underlying model introduced so far are indistinct. A thorough understanding of the forms detailed in the next five lessons will clarify why we have introduced these terms to the Elliott Wave lexicon.

Jelang Data Payroll AS, Emas Bergerak Tipis

Monexnews - Harga emas AS sempat sedikit bergerak hari Jumat seiring investor yang masih waspada menjelang data payroll atau tenaga kerja AS yang akan dirilis hari ini, setelah beberapa data yang mixed memberikan sinyal mengenai status ekonomi negara terbesar tersebut.

Spot emas diperdagangkan flat di $1,824.34 per troy ounce, sejalan dengan kejatuhan mingguannya sebesar 0.2%.

Harga emas AS hanya bergerak tipis di level $1,827.50, menuju ke penguatan mingguannya sebesar 1.7%.

Kewaspadaan masih akan terus terjadi sebelum data AS bulan Agustus untuk laporan tenaga kerja akan dirilis. Data laporan Non-Farm diperkirakan hanya akan naik sebesar 75,000, melambat dari kenaikan sebelumnya sebesar 117,000, menurut sebuah survei dari Reuters.