Emas: Tahun Baru, Rally Baru

Monexnews - Meski harga emas turun dalam beberapa pekan terakhir, tidak berarti prospek permintaan fisik ikut tergerus. Aspek sosial budaya negara konsumen mendukung penguatan harga lebih lanjut.

Penurunan harga pekan lalu ternyata cukup merangsang minat beli emas, baik dari Timur Tengah, Eropa maupun Asia. Beberapa dealer besar mencatat limpahan permintaan dan sedikit sekali perintah penjualan.

Tahun baru China

Demand emas fisik cenderung dipengaruhi oleh faktor musiman. Harga emas batangan premium di Singapura dan Hong Kong terpantau naik dibanding pekan lalu. Menjelang libur tahun baru lunar, tingkat permintaan lazimnya melonjak. Demikian pula halnya di India, yang juga memiliki masa peringatan hari raya sendiri.

Volume permintaan konsumen ritel dari China sangat menentukan pergerakan harga. Meski tingkat permintaan diprediksi tidak sebagus tahun lalu, momen tahun baru selalu berimbas pada kenaikan demand signifikan. Societe Generale mencatat bahwa arus transaksi emas Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) sudah mencapai rekor tertinggi kemarin (20/12). "Rata-rata transaksi harian adalah 6,5 ton di bulan November, namun naik sampai 11,5 ton sejak 12 Desember lalu," ulas Societe. Jika dianalisa lebih lanjut, permintaan melonjak tepat di saat harga jatuh ke bawah $1,700 per ons. Artinya transaksi harian di SGE sudah meroket 77% dari level bulan November. Pengaruh dari China sejatinya akan lebih besar dalam hitungan hari mendatang.

Hari ini, Goldman Sachs memaparkan proyeksi harga emas untuk tiga bulan ke depan di $1,785. Sedangkan proyeksi harga untuk enam bulan adalah $1,840 dan 12 bulan ke depan di $1,940. Ekspektasi itu cukup realistis, mengingat harga saat ini sudah pulih ke atas psikologis $1,600 per ons. 

Jika ditilik lebih jauh, beberapa faktor berikut berpotensi menopang harga dalam beberapa bulan ke depan:

- Selama suku bunga tetap rendah dan tren bailout mengemuka, maka tidak ada alasan bagi emas untuk turun harga.

- Solusi krisis memang sedang diupayakan oleh pejabat tinggi Eropa. Angka triliunan euro siap digelontorkan, baik oleh Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) maupun Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) dan the Fed. Namun, siapa yang akan mem-bailout Jepang, Inggris dan Amerika Serikat? Padahal ekonomi ketiga negara ini tengah flat dan beban hutang jangka panjang juga sangat besar.

- Penyeimbangan rasio hutang secara teoritis tidak bisa benar-benar tuntas dengan membuat hutang baru. Terlepas dari struktur apapun yang dipakai, bailout tetaplah sebuah pinjaman yang harus dilunasi kelak.

- Perbankan menjadi sektor yang memiliki penyakit kronis akibat krisis. Mulai dari kewajiban menerima kerugian aset obligasi negara, kebangkrutan dan pengetatan aturan sistem perbankan. Semua beban itu memiliki efek berantai yang kian mempersempit peluang bank untuk meraih keseimbangan neraca.

- Konflik kepentingan antara golongan politik, baik di Eropa maupun AS. Bisa terlihat dari bagaimana Franco-German gagal meluluhkan hati Inggris untuk menyepakati aturan fiskal bersama awal bulan ini. Atau pertentangan partai Demokrat dan Republik dalam menyikapi beban hutang Amerika. Belum lagi pengaruh ketegangan politik dari wilayah, seperti Timur Tengah dan Korea Utara.

(dim)

Alternation within Corrective Waves

If a large correction begins with a flat a-b-c construction for wave A, expect a zigzag a-b-c formation for wave B (see Figure 2-2), and vice versa (see Figure 2-3). With a moment's thought, it is obvious that this occurrence is sensible, since the first illustration reflects an upward bias in both subwaves while the second reflects a downward bias. Figure 2-2 Figure 2-3 Quite often, if a large correction begins with a simple a-b-c zigzag for wave A, wave B will stretch out into a more intricately subdivided a-b-c zigzag to achieve a type of alternation, as in Figure 2-4. Sometimes wave C will be yet more complex, as in Figure 2-5. The reverse order of complexity is somewhat less common. Figure 2-4 Figure 2-5

GOLD MOMENT : Bidik Gain di Atas 20%!

Emas telah mencatat kenaikan lebih dari 20 % selama dua tahun terakhir (2009-2010). Sebgaai kilas balik, harga emas di taun 2011 berada dikisaran $1,300 per troyonce sebelum mengalami kenaikan tajam diatas 30% ke kisaran $1,900. Kemudian panik jual menyeret turun harga emas sebanyak 20% ke level $1,500 an. Patut diingat bahwa belum 2011 berakhir,tapi sanggupkah emas mencatat kenaikan tahunan lebih dari 20%?

Penguatan USD 

Emas tidak pernah dipanang negatif oleh investor melainkan hanya dipakai sebagai sumber dana sementara untuk memproteksi kerugian. Penurunan harga justru memberi kesempatan investor untuk membeli emas di harga yg lebih murah.

The End of the Year

Emas kemungkinan besar kembali membukukan kenaikan 20% dalam 1 tahun, mengulang kinerja 2 tahun sebelumnya. 

Rekomendasi : berdasarkan indikator Fibbonacci, emas memiliki support di area 1,666 (50%), harga saat ini sudah tembus 1,700. Jika harga tembus level 1,738 maka emas akan berpeluang menyentuh level 1,800. Namun jika bergerak dibawah 1,700, tampak peluang beli di area Fibo 50%, dan 61,8% (1,635). Support terkuat emas berada di Fibo 72,8% (1,600).

The Guidelines of Alternation

The guidelines presented in Lessons 10-15 are discussed and illustrated in the context of a bull market. Except where specifically excluded, they apply equally in bear markets, in which context the illustrations and implications would be inverted.

 

Alternation

The guideline of alternation is very broad in its application and warns the analyst always to expect a difference in the next expression of a similar wave. Hamilton Bolton said,

The writer is not convinced that alternation is inevitable in types of waves in larger formations, but there are frequent enough cases to suggest that one should look for it rather than the contrary.

Although alternation does not say precisely what is going to happen, it gives valuable notice of what not to expect and is therefore useful to keep in mind when analyzing wave formations and assessing future possibilities. It primarily instructs the analyst not to assume, as most people tend to do, that because the last market cycle behaved in a certain manner, this one is sure to be the same. As "contrarians" never cease to point out, the day that most investors "catch on" to an apparent habit of the market is the day it will change to one completely different. However, Elliott went further in stating that, in fact, alternation was virtually a law of markets.

Alternation Within Impulses

If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. Figure 2-1 shows the most characteristic breakdowns of impulse waves, both up and down, as suggested by the guideline of alternation. Sharp corrections never include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave. 

They are almost always zigzags (single, double or triple); occasionally they are double threes that begin with a zigzag. Sideways corrections include flats, triangles, and double and triple corrections. They usually include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave. In rare cases, a regular triangle (one that does not include a new price extreme) in the fourth wave position will take the place of a sharp correction and alternate with another type of sideways pattern in the second wave position. The idea of alternation within impulses can be summarized by saying that one of the two corrective processes will contain a move back to or beyond the end of the preceding impulse, and the other will not.

Figure 2-1

Diagonal triangles do not display alternation between subwaves 2 and 4. Typically they are both zigzags. Extensions are an expression of alternation, as the motive waves alternate their lengths. Typically the first is short, the third is extended, and the fifth is short again. Extensions, which normally occur in wave 3, sometimes occur in wave 1 or 5, another manifestation of alternation.

Emas Masih Lemah

Monexnews - Emas berpotensi terus bergerak ke level $1,550/ons, setelah berhasil menembus level MA 200-day, menurut analis Credit Agricole, Robin Bhar. Emas dapat terus melemah ke level seperti akhir tahun 2008. Tampaknya pemain pasar masih terus melakukan aksi jual.

Spot emas turun lebih dari 3% pada hari Rabu terkait kecemasan mengenai kondisi likuiditas dan perekonomian Eropa. Fitch melakukan penurunan peringkat investasi pada lima bank besar Eropa sebesar satu notch. Menteri Perancis Alain Juppe mengatakan penurunan peringkat terhadap Perancis tidak terlampau besar. Hal ini mendorong spekulasi pasar bahwa pemeritah tengah bersiap untuk kehilangan peringkat tripe-A. Spot emas di $1,576.25/ons.

Reconciling Function and mode

In Lessons 3 and 4, we described the two functions waves may perform (action and reaction), as well as the two modes of structural development (motive and corrective) that they undergo. Now that we have reviewed all types of waves, we can summarize their labels as follows:
 

— The labels for actionary waves are 1, 3, 5, A, C, E, W, Y and Z.

— The labels for reactionary waves are 2, 4, B, D and X.

As stated earlier, all reactionary waves develop in corrective mode, and most actionary waves develop in motive mode. The preceding sections have described which actionary waves develop in corrective mode.
They are:

— waves 1, 3 and 5 in an ending diagonal,

— wave A in a flat correction,

— waves A, C and E in a triangle,

— waves W and Y in double zigzags and double corrections,

— wave Z in triple zigzags and triple corrections.

Because the waves listed above are actionary in relative direction yet develop in corrective mode, we term them "actionary corrective" waves.

As far as we know, we have listed all wave formations that can occur in the price movement of the broad stock market averages. Under the Wave Principle, no other formations than those listed here will occur. Indeed, since the hourly readings are a nearly perfectly matched filter for detailing waves of  Subminuette degree, the authors can find no examples of waves above the Subminuette degree that cannot be counted satisfactorily by the Elliott method. In fact, Elliott Waves of much smaller degree than Subminuette are revealed by computer generated charts of minute-by-minute transactions. Even the few data points (transactions) per unit of time at this low a degree are enough to reflect accurately the Wave Principle of human behavior by recording the rapid shifts in psychology occurring in the "pits" and on the exchange floor. All rules (which were covered in Lessons 1 through 9) and guidelines (which are covered in Lessons 1 through 15) fundamentally apply to actual market mood, not its recording per se or lack thereof. Its clear manifestation requires free market pricing. When prices are fixed by government edict, such as those for gold and silver for half of the twentieth century, waves restricted by the edict are not allowed to register. When the available price record differs from what might have existed in a free market, rules and guidelines must be considered in that light. In the long run, of course, markets always win out over edicts, and edict enforcement is only possible if the mood of the market allows it. All rules and guidelines presented in this course presume that your price record is accurate. Now that we have presented the rules and rudiments of wave formation, we can move on to some of the guidelines for successful analysis under the Wave Principle.

Guidelines of Wave Formation

Although different in that their angle of trend is sharper than the sideways trend of combinations, double and triple zigzags can be characterized as non-horizontal combinations, as Elliott seemed to suggest in Nature's Law. However, double and triple threes are different from double and triple zigzags, not only in their angle but in their goal. In a double or triple zigzag, the first zigzag is rarely large enough to constitute an adequate price correction of the preceding wave. The doubling or tripling of the initial form is typically necessary to create an adequately sized price retracement. In a combination, however, the first simple pattern often constitutes an adequate price correction. The doubling or tripling appears to occur mainly to extend the duration of the corrective process after price targets have been substantially met. Sometimes additional time is needed to reach a channel line or achieve a stronger kinship with the other correction in an impulse wave. As the consolidation continues, the attendant psychology and fundamentals extend their trends accordingly.
 

As this section makes clear, there is a qualitative difference between the number series 3 + 4 + 4 + 4, etc., and the series 5 + 4 + 4 + 4, etc. Notice that while impulse waves have a total count of 5, with extensions leading to 9, 13 or 17 waves, and so on, corrective waves have a count of 3, with combinations leading to 7 or 11 waves, and so on. Triangles appear to be an exception, although they can be counted as one would a triple three, totaling 11 waves. Thus, if an internal count is unclear, the analyst can sometimes reach a reasonable conclusion merely by counting waves. A count of 9, 13 or 17 with few overlaps, for instance, is likely motive, while a count of 7, 11 or 15 with numerous overlaps is likely corrective. The main exceptions are diagonal triangles of both types, which are hybrids of motive and corrective forces.

Orthodox Tops and Bottoms

Sometimes a pattern's end differs from the associated price extreme. In such cases, the end of the pattern is called the "orthodox" top or bottom in order to differentiate it from the actual price high or low that occurs intra-pattern. For example, in Figure 1-11, the end of wave 5 is the orthodox top despite the fact that wave 3 registered a higher price. In Figure 1-12, the end of wave 5 is the orthodox bottom. In Figures 1-33 and 1-34, the starting point of wave A is the orthodox top of the preceding bull market despite the higher high of wave B. In Figure 1-47, the end of wave Y is the orthodox bottom of the bear market even though the price low occurs at the end of wave W.

This concept is important primarily because a successful analysis always depends upon a proper labeling of the patterns. Assuming falsely that a particular price extreme is the correct starting point for wave labeling can throw analysis off for some time, while being aware of the requirements of wave form will keep you on track. Further, when applying the forecasting concepts that will be introduced in Lessons 20 through 25, the length and duration of a wave are typically determined by measuring from and projecting orthodox ending points.

GBPUSD: Terlihat Bearish, Support di Kisaran 1.5607 – 1.5546

Monexnews - Pergerakan GBPUSD pada grafik 1 jam-an terlihat berpotenensi membentuk formasi pennant dimana ada potensi harga akan bergerak ke bawah. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berpotensi berada dalam kondisi bearish. Pecahnya lower line dan support 1.5607 cenderung akan membawa pound melemah terhadap dollar dengan bergerak menuju support berikutnya di kisaran 1.5546 hingga 1.5508. Sebaliknya jika upper line dan resistan 1.5668 ditembus maka pound akan menguat dengan bergerak ke atas menuju resistan 1.5730.

(Fredy Rodo Tampubolon)

Corrective Combinations

Double and Triple Threes Elliott called sideways combinations of corrective patterns "double threes" and "triple threes." While a single three is any zigzag or flat, a triangle is an allowable final component of such combinations and in this context is called a "three." A double or triple three, then, is a combination of simpler types of corrections, including the various types of zigzags, flats and triangles. Their occurrence appears to be the flat correction's way of extending sideways action. As with double and triple zigzags, each simple corrective pattern is labeled W, Y and Z. The reactionary waves, labeled X, can take the shape of any corrective pattern but are most commonly zigzags. Combinations of threes were labeled differently by Elliott at different times, although the illustrative pattern always took the shape of two or three juxtaposed flats, as shown in Figures 1-45 and 1-46. However, the component patterns more commonly alternate in form. For example, a flat followed by a triangle is a more typical type of double three, as illustrated in Figure 1-47. Figure 1-45 Figure 1-46 Figure 1-47 A flat followed by a zigzag is another example, as shown in Figure 1-48. Naturally, since the figures in this section depict corrections in bull markets, they need only be inverted to observe them as upward corrections in bear markets. Figure 1-48 For the most part, double threes and triple threes are horizontal in character. Elliott indicated that the entire formations could slant against the larger trend, although we have never found this to be the case. One reason is that there never appears to be more than one zigzag in a combination. Neither is there more than one triangle. Recall that triangles occurring alone precede the final movement of a larger trend. Combinations appear to recognize this character and sport triangles only as the final wave in a double or triple three.

Triangle Examples

There are several real life examples of triangles in the charts in this course. As you will notice, most of the subwaves in a triangle are zigzags, but sometimes one of the subwaves (usually wave c) is more complex than the others and can take the shape of a regular or expanded flat or multiple zigzag. In rare cases, one of the sub-waves (usually wave e) is itself a triangle, so that the entire pattern protracts into nine waves. Thus, triangles, like zigzags, occasionally display a development that is analogous to an extension. One example occurred in silver from 1973 through 1977 (see Figure 1-44).

Figure 1-44

Although upon extremely rare occasions a second wave in an impulse appears to take the form of a triangle, triangles nearly always occur in positions prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree, i.e., as wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, or the final wave X in a double or triple zig-zag or combination (to be shown in Lesson 9). A triangle may also occur as the final actionary pattern in a corrective combination, as discussed in Lesson 9, although even then it always precedes the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree than the corrective combination. 

In the stock market, when a triangle occurs in the fourth wave position, wave five is sometimes swift and travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle. Elliott used the word "thrust" in referring to this swift, short motive wave following a triangle. The thrust is usually an impulse but can be an ending diagonal. In powerful markets, there is no thrust, but instead a prolonged fifth wave. So if a fifth wave following a triangle pushes past a normal thrust measurement, it is signaling a likely protracted wave. Post-triangle advancing impulses in commodities at degrees above Intermediate are usually the longest wave in the sequence, as explained in Lesson 29.

On the basis of our experience with triangles, as the example in Figure 3-15 illustrates, we propose that often the time at which the boundary lines of a contracting triangle reach an apex coincides exactly with a turning point in the market. Perhaps the frequency of this occurrence would justify its inclusion among the guidelines associated with the Wave Principle.

The term "horizontal" as applied to triangles refers to these corrective triangles in general, as opposed to the term "diagonal," which refers to those motive triangular formations discussed in Lesson 5. Thus, the terms "horizontal triangle" and "diagonal triangle" denote these specific forms under the Wave Principle. The simpler terms "triangle" and "wedge" may be substituted, but keep in mind that technical chart readers have long used these terms to communicate less specifically subdivided forms defined only by overall shape. Having separate terms can be useful.

GBPUSD: Potensial Bearish, Support di Kisaran 1.5584 – 1.5524

Monexnews - Pergerakan GBPUSD pada grafik 1 jam-an terlihat berpotensi membentuk formasi flag dimana ada potensi pound akan melemah terhadap dollar. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berpotensi berada dalam kondisi bearish. Pecahnya support 1.5584 berpotensi akan membawa pound terkoreksi dengan bergerak ke bawah menuju support 1.5524. Sebaliknya jika resistan 1.5621 ditembus maka pound berpeluang akan menguat terhadap dollar dengan bergerak menuju resistan 1.5681.

(Fredy Rodo Tampubolon)

Emas Bergerak Was-was di Pekan Krusial

Monexnews - Mengawali pekan ini (Senin, 5/12) harga Emas dunia terpantau ranging di kisaran 1745-1748 dollar setelah mencatat penguatan mingguan tertajam dalam lebih dari satu bulan.

Harga Emas yang sideways ini lantaran investor kini berhati-hati memposisikan diri di pasar menjelang pertemuan dan keputusan krusial terhadap solusi krisis utang di kawasan Eropa. Selain itu pasar juga tengah menantikan hasil petemuan antara Presiden Perancis Nicholas Sarkozy dengan Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel hari ini yang akan segera merumuskan integrasi fiskal di kawasan.    

Secara teknikal setelah Emas mencapai level $1761.75 pada akhir pekan lalu, harga akan berpotensi rally ke area $1755 baru kemudian ke level tinggi $1761.75 untuk melanjutkan ke area $1770. Sementara koreksi akan membawa logam mulia ini terseret ke level $1740 hingga ke $1733 atau bahkan ke level $1720.(Dar)  

Triangles

Triangles appear to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. Triangles contain five overlapping waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled a-b-c-d-e. A triangle is delineated by connecting the termination points of waves a and c, and b and d. Wave e can undershoot or overshoot the a-c line, and in fact, our experience tells us that it happens more often than not.

There are two varieties of triangles: contracting and expanding. Within the contracting variety, there are three types: symmetrical, ascending, and descending, as illustrated in Figure 1-42. There are no variations on the rarer expanding triangle. It always appears as depicted in Figure 1-42, which is why Elliott termed it a "reverse symmetrical" triangle.

Figure 1-42

Figure 1-42 depicts contracting triangles as taking place within the area of preceding price action, in what may be termed regular triangles. However, it is extremely common for wave b of a contracting triangle to exceed the start of wave a in what may be termed a running triangle, as shown in Figure 1-43. Despite their sideways appearance, all triangles, including running triangles, effect a net retracement of the preceding wave at wave e's end.

Figure 1-43

Emas Curi Peluang Dari Pelemahan Dollar AS

Monexnews - Harga Emas dunia kembali rally di sesi perdagangan Asia (Kamis, 1/12), dan nyaris mencapai level $1750/troy ons setelah mengambil ancang-ancang dari level rendah 1745.15 pada saat pembukaan sesi.

Rally Emas yang kini memasuki hari ke-4 terutama berkat merosotnya dollar AS setelah tercapainya langkah koordinasi yang dilakukan oleh Federal Reserve AS dan Bank Sentral Eropa bersama 4 bank sentral utama dunia lainnya. Kesepakatan tersebut sebagai upaya untuk menjamin ketersediaan dana bagi sektor perbankan yang lagi terpuruk dilanda masalah hutang.

Sentimen positif juga datang dari otoritas pemerintah China yang menurunkan Giro Wajib Minimum (RRR) untuk kali pertama sejak tahun 2008 sebesar 50 bp dan efektif mulai 5 Desember mendatang.

Secara teknikal dengan kondisi indikator Stochastic-harian yang bullish dan Moving Average (MA-7 dan MA-14) yang mulai brepotongan naik, memungkinkan logam mulia untuk melanjutkan rally. Dan penguatan berpeluang membawa Emas ke resisten $1770 hingga $1800.

Sementara support kuat terdekat berada pada $1740, kemudian melanjutkan $1725, bahkan bila tahanan ini pecah, harga akan membawa Emas ke support krusial kembali di $1700.(Dar)