The Daily Wave Analysis

Currency pair EUR/USD
The jury is still undecided whether this is an impulsive 5 wave down (green letters) or an ABC correction (black letters). 4 hour chart EURUSD:

The usual wave C target has already been hit. Now it will be interesting to see if price bounces or breaks at the wave 4 Fibs. In case of a move down, there is potential daily support at the 50% Fib (green).

Currency pair GBPUSD
The GU broke the support trend line (blue) and is moving down lower. The Fibonacci levels could provide support

Currently the most likely wave count is indicating a wave 4 and 5 (purple) of wave c (orange).

Currency pair USD/JPY
The USDJPY remains in a consolidation between support (green) and resistance (red). For the moment I am cautious and waiting for more price action information.

Pivot Point dan Kalkulasi Resistance-Support

Pivot point adalah sebuah level harga yg signifikan dalam proses analisa teknikal pasar uang dan kerap digunakan sebagai indikator untuk memprediksi pergerakan harga. Pada dasarnya, pivot point diperhitungkan sebagai nilai rata-rata dari beberapa harga signifikan pada sesi sebelumnya. Jika harga pada sesi saat ini berada diatas pivot point, maka sentimen dianggap bullish. Sebaliknya jika harga berada di bawah pivot point maka sentimen diasumsikan bearish.

Pivot point biasanya dipergunakan dengan memakai perhitungan tambahan untuk level support dan resisitance , diatas dan dibawah pivot point tersebut. caranya dengan mengurangi atau menambahakan differensial harga yang diperhitungkan dari range pasar pada periode sebelumnya.

Pivot point, resistance dan support biasanya mnejadi titik dimana harga berbalik harga arah. pada kondisi pasar bullish, pivot point dan resistancenya dapat menjadi level tahanan dan sinyal terciptanya reversal harga. sebaliknya, pada pasar bearish, pivot point dan support levelnya dapat menjadi indikasi bahwa harga telah mencapai level rendah dan membatasi pelemahan lebih lanjut.

Perhitungan

Terdapat beberapa metode dalam perhitungan level pivot point . yang paling umum adalah nilai rata-rata harga high (H) . low(L), close (C) periode sebelumnya (harga kemarin).

Formula pivot :

P = (H+L+C)/3

Perhitungan pivot terkadang juga menyertakan harga open (O) dari periode sebelumnya atau periode berjalan.

Formula pivot :

P= (O+H+L+C)/4

Kedua formula ini adalah metode perhitungan pivot yang paling umum dipakai oleh para trader. diluar itu, masih ada beberapa formula yang digunakan oleh sebagian pelaku pasar.

Metode yang menitik beratkan pada harga close periode sebelumnya.

Pivot formula : P= (H+L+C+C)/4

Atau metode yang menitik beratakan pada harga open periode berjalan,

Pivot formula : P=(H+L+O+O)/4

Level Resistance dan Support

dapat berubah fungsi , tergantung harga berjalan dari arah bawah ke atas maupun dari atas ke bawah. dalam analisa pivot point, beberapa level (biasanya 3) diposisikan dibawah dan diatas pivot point. Level-level ini diperhitungkan dari range harga pada periode transaksi sebelumnya, kemudian ditambahkan atau dikurangi dari pivot poiint untuk resistance dan support.

Level pertama dan paling penting adalah level resistance 1 (R1) dan support 1 (S1), yang biasanya menjadi target exit market. Level R2 dan S2 biasanya hanya sebagai perpanjangan dari target tersebut. Terkadang perpanjangan R4 dan S4 juga disertakan dalam perhitungan, walaupun jarang terjadi.

Umumnya, level resisitance dan support dimulai dari level ke 2 dan seterusnya, membentuk secara simetris terhadap pivot point, tetapi tidak sama halnya dengan R1 dan S1. kecuali bila level pivot point berada tepat ditengah range periode sebelumnya.

Implementasi pivot point

pivot point sendiri mewakili level resistance dan support yang kuat , tergantung dari kondisi pasar secara keseluruhan. jika arah pasar tidak menentu (sideway), harga dapat berfluktuasi disekitar level pivot hingga menembus batasan harga.

Secara teori, bila harga berada di bawah pivot point dan memotong naik, maka menjadi sinyal buy (terutama pada trend bullish). Dan bila harga berada diatas pivot point dan memotong turun, maka menjadi sinyal sell (terutama pada trend bearish). level R1 dan S1 merupakan level exit dari pasar dan jarang digunakan sebagai sinyal masuk entry atau masuk pasar. Level R2 dan S2 biasanya biasanya digunakan sebagai level exit atau keluar berikutnya bila level R1 dan S1 ditembus dengan signifikan. Sedangkan level R3 san S3 bisa digunakan sebagai level entry apabila terjadi koreksi pada kisaran level tersebut.

Pada praktekya. banyak pelaku pasar yang memiliki posisi esar menempatkan selling level (level jual) pada kisarn R1 dan buying level (level beli) pada kisaran S1 sebagai tindakan ambil untung (take profit). Kondisi serupa juga terjadi pada level-level resistance dan support selanjutknya, yang justru makin memperkuat level-level tersebut.

Level cutloss bisa ditempatkan pada kisaran 50% dari sinyal entry ke level resistance dan support selanjutnya.Contoh : posisi buy setelah harga cross (bersilangan) ke atas level pivot, maka posisi cut loss dapat disiapkan 50% diantara level pivot  dan S1. Contoh lainnya bila posisi sell setelah harga bertahan pada R2, level cut loss dapat disiapkan pada kisaran 50% antara R2 dan R3.

Formula Resistance dan support metode pivot :

Pivot resistance                                 Pivot Support

R1 = 2 x P-L                                        S1 = 2 x P-H

R2 = P+(H-L)                                      S2 = P-(H-L)

R3 =R1+(H-L)                                    S3 = S1- (H-L)

Mengungkap Mitos Manajemen Resiko

" Terdapat ratusan juta automated trading tersusun dalam suatu sistem matematika kompleks yang telah menyumbang 1/3 dari volume perdagangan berjangka di AS. Namun apakah trader ritel independen dengan sumber daya terbatas mampu mengatasi kompetisi pada industri robot yang sangat besar tersebut ? Melalui artiket Automated Trader kami akan menunjukkan hal itu sebenarnya dapat dilakukan "

Beberapa manager hedge fund kuantitatif legendaris yang menggunakan sistem trading otomatis seperti Dr. Edward Thorp dari Princeton Newport Partners dan Dr. Jim Simons dari Renaisssance Technologies Corp memulai karir mereka dengan menggunakan robot trading. Seiring waktu berjalan, karir mereka sebagai trader retail menanjak karena sistem robotnya berhasil mencatat track record yang menguntungkan. Pengalaman mereka juga menunjukkan sistem robot yang konsisten adalah sistem robot yang sebenarnya simple dan tidak disertai terlalu banyak teori canggih. Dan tentu saja yang paling utama adalah fokus pada risk menagement.

Risk management merupakan disiplin yang krusial dalam trading.  Sebgaian besar penyebab kerugian besar yang dialamai oleh manager hedge fund maupun lembaga investasi perbankan biasanya terletak pada satu trade dalam kurun waktu pendek. Mengapa ha ini terjadi? Karena pengambilan resiko atau posisi yang berlebihan muncl dari model formula yang dibarengi sikap over-confidence.

Artinya, displin psikologis juga diperlukan dalam mindset risk management secara keseluruhan, dimana setiap trader perlu memproses strategi robot melalui beberapa aspek. Diantaranya adalah pengujian model formula, eksekusi software serta prosedur operasional lainnya dan money/risk management sebelum menambah jumlah posisi dari formula yang telah ditentukan.

Namun tidak dipungkiri strategi trading robot yang mumpuni kadankala juga mengalami kerugian, atau secara teknis dikenal dengan istilah 'drawdown'. Drawdown dapat terjadi dalam hitungan menit atau bahkan tahunan lamanya. Drawdown juga dapat dibagi menjadi dua jenis, yakni periode drawdown pada equity, atau merupakan kerugian per transaksi. Sedangkan yang kedua adalah maximum drawdown yang merupakan kerugian maksimum secara historis.

Faktor paling penting untuk meraih keuntungan dari automated trading adalah pengelolaan resiko dengan cara membatasi drawdown ke level yang dapat ditoleransi. Namun daya ungkitnya masih optimal untuk meraih keuntungan maksimum. Dengan kata lain, intisari dari suatu strategi robot terletak pada pengaturan alokasi modal optimal desertai pengambilan posisi yang telah dihitung berdasarkan formula tertentu.

Apakah penggunaan stop loss merupakan praktik Risk management yang baik?

Beberapa trader meyakini bahwa risk management yang baik berarti menggunakan stop loss disetiap tansaksi. Sehingga jika suatu posisi mencapai presentase kerugian tertentu, maka robot akan exit posisi. Memang cukup ajar jika ada pemahaman bahwa dengan menggunakan stop loss maka equity dapat terhindar dari kerugian akibat event / shock market .  Bagaimanapun jika terjadi shock market , harga biasanya drop / naik gila-gilaan sehingga order stop loss untuk exit posisi hanyaa terpasang pada posisi yang tidak kita inginkan. dengan melakukan exit posisi, sebenarnya robot hanya merealisasikan kerugian akibat shock market, bukannya menghindar dari situasi tersebut.

Setiap strategi robot hanya bisa meraih profit jika harga bergerak range trading dalam mencari nilai mean atau trending. Diluar itu, jika kondisi market hanya bersifat random-walking maka setiap stop loss pasti akan terjilat. Ketika situasi market dalam kondisi trending maka harga akan bergerak berdasarkan momentum, atau biasanya dikenal dengan robot yang menggunakan strategi momentum. Dalam kondisi market seperti ini, strategi exit posisi perlu disusun sedemikian rupa untuk memastikan agar pembalikan yang terjadi mendapatkan momentum atau dalam tren yang akan berlanjut. karena jika pergerakan hanay terjadi akibat shock market yang bersifat sementara dan ternyata harga berbalik ke level semula , kita tentu dapat menghindari exit posisi telalu dini. 

Contohnya pada indeks Nikkei atau pasanga USDJPY yang mengalami pergerakan besar di pertengahan tahun 2013 . Momentum harga Nikkei masih dipotong oleh alasan fundamental yang menunjukkan harga Nikkei saat itu masih undervalued seiring dengan kebijakan stimulus BoJ, Harga saham kemungkinan masih mengalami penguatan secara gradual untuk mencapai ekulibrium yang lebih tinngi tidak akan berbalik selama fundamental ekonomi tidak mengalami perubahan. Kalaupun terajdi pergerakan koreksi yang besar pada situasi tersebut, biasanya hanya disebabkan oleh event liquidity yakni terjadinya aksi likuidasi / profit taking sejumlah posisi dalam volume besar oleh para spekulan atau pemilik saham. Hal seperti ini menyebabkan indeks anjlok secara tiba-tiba. Event liquidity seperti ini memiliki durasi yang relatif pendek dan harga cenderung kembali lagi ke level semula. Tentunya strategi exit yang baik adalah memanfaatkan strategi momentum seperti ini dan menghindari terjadinya stop loss, hanya akibat event liquidity yang bersifat sesaat.

Kelly Formula

Risk management dengan menggunakan metode Kelly formula memeberi saran kepada robot untuk mengurangi volume posisi jika sedang menghadapi drawdown / kerugian trading. Begitu pula sebaliknya, jika terjadi realisasi profit maka robot akan menyarankan penambahan position size (geometrical Money Management).

Dua komponen utama dalam formula Kellly :

1. Win Probability : Probabilitas dalam setiap trade yang dapat memberikan return positif.
2. Win/ loss Ratio : total jumlah trade yang menghasilakn profit dibagi dengan jumlah total loss trade

Dengan menggabungkan kedua faktor tersebut, maka formula Kelly adalah :

Kelly % = W- [(1-W) / R]

Keterangan :

W = Winning probability

R = Ratio Win / loss

Dengan menggunakan Kelly Criterion, anada dapat menentukan presentase resiko yang ideal pada setiap transaksi berdasarkan probabilitas ratio win/ loss yang diambil dari track record robot Anda. Misalnya jika presentase Kelly menunjukkan hasil 0.05, maka robot akan mengambil position size sebesar 5 % dari equity. Meski money management seperti ini tidak menjamin Anda untuk mendapatkan hasil yang spektakuler , setidaknya penerapan strategi ini dapat membatasi kerugian dan memaksimalkan potensi keuntungan. 

 

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO The pair stabilized this week below key support level of the ascending channel which was broken earlier, as Linear Regression Indicators are trading negatively. The abovementioned forces us to think that the downside move might extend to achieve further targets of the AB=CD bearish harmonic Pattern. The pair might touch 1.3080 levels during this week as the bearish move might extend reaching the psychological level 1.3000 or more. Stability below 1.3270 levels keeps the possibility of a downside move valid. The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1.2905 and key resistance at 1.3355. The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 1.3990 as far as areas of 1.3350 remains intact. Support: 1.3170, 1.3120, 1.3080, 1.3030, 1.3000 Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3275, 1.3305, 1.3355, 1.3405 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair below 1.3235 targeting 1.3120, 1.3080 then 1.3000 and stop-loss with four-hour closing above 1.3305 might be appropriate   GBP The pair broke 61.8% correction at 1.5180 levels shown on the graph increasing negativity, which might push the pair more to the downside towards 78.6% correction at 1.4760 levels during the upcoming session. Trading below 1.5300 levels with weekly closing is considered negative, but we prefer to see the pair stable below 1.5225 levels to accelerate the downside move. The opening of this week with a sharp decline formed a price gap which makes risk/rewards ratios inappropriate to take a position. The previously mentioned forces us to remain neutral despite our expectations to extend the overall bearish move. The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.4760 and key resistance at 1.5475. The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 remains intact. Support: 1.5130, 1.5080, 1.5000, 1.4940, 1.4895 Resistance: 1.5225, 1.5300, 1.5385, 1.5415, 1.5485 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral for now awaiting more confirmations for the next move   JPY The pair moved to the upside with this week’s opening, but it wasn’t able to push the pair to stabilize above resistance level 94.50. Meanwhile, the pair is proving stability above Linear Regression Indicators again forcing us to remain neutral in our weekly report. The upside move needs stability above 94.50 levels while the bearish move return requires stability below Linear Regression Indicators to break the ascending channel. The trading range for today is among key support at 90.40 and key resistance at 95.50. The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 100.00 as far as areas of 84.00 remain intact. Support: 94.15, 93.65, 93.05, 92.50, 92.05 Resistance: 94.55, 95.00, 95.50, 95.85, 96.70 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral for now awaiting more confirmations for the next move   CHF The pair is gradually moving to the upside as the positive technical catalysts still dominates the pair and might help it to touch 0.9375 levels in an attempt to breach it confirming another ascending wave. Momentum indicators are showing overbought signals; meanwhile Linear Regression Indicators are positive and trading above 0.9235 with daily closing will extend the upside move this week. The trading range for today is among key support at 0.9200 and key resistance at 0.9515. The general trend over short term basis is to the downside stable at levels 0.9775 targeting 0.8860. Support: 0.9280, 0.9235, 0.9200, 0.9170, 0.9155 Resistance: 0.9375, 0.9425, 0.9460, 0.9490, 0.9515 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 0.9280 targeting 0.9375, 0.9460 then 0.9515 and stop-loss with four-hour closing below 0.9200 might be appropriate   CAD The pair rose and is trading above 1.0355 levels indicating that the harmonic formation shown on the graph might be formed. Momentum indicators are showing overbought signals but we will ignore them unless level 1.0120 was broken. Stability above 1.0055 levels keeps the positive possibility, but as we referred earlier stability above 1.0120 levels is important to cancel any overbought affect. The trading range for this week is between the key support at 1.0055 and the key resistance at 1.0440. The general trend over short term basis is to the downside with steady daily closing below levels 1.0125 targeting 0.9400. Support: 1.0205, 1.0165, 1.0120, 1.0085, 1.0055 Resistance: 1.0290, 1.0310, 1.0355, 1.0420, 1.0440 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 1.0205 targeting 1.0290, 1.0310 then 1.0355 and stop-loss with four-hour closing below 1.0120 might be appropriate this week   AUD The pair is trading between 61.8% correction from the upside and 78.6% correction from the downside at 1.0320 and 1.0245 levels. Meanwhile, we find the pair trading between Linear Regression Indicator 34 and 55. Such case makes risk/rewards ratios inappropriate and the trend unclear, forcing us to remain neutral in our weekly report waiting for confirmation signals. The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.0085 and key resistance at 1.0440. The general trend over short term basis is to the downside with steady daily closing below levels 1.0710 targeting 0.9400. Support: 1.0245, 1.0220, 1.0200, 1.0165, 1.0135 Resistance: 1.0320, 1.0345, 1.0385, 1.0400, 1.0440 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral for now awaiting more confirmations for the next move   NZD The pair dropped but is still limited above key support level of the ascending channel. But with that, we find that the pair is stable below Linear Regression Indicators; therefore the pair should stabilize above 0.8415 levels to support the return of the upside move. Anyhow, we will stay positive unless the pair broke 0.8270 levels. The trading range for this week might be among key support at 0.8200 and key resistance at 0.8535. The general trend over short term basis is to the upside with steady daily closing above 0.8130 targeting 0.8845. Support: 0.8355, 0.8310, 0.8270, 0.8225, 0.8200 Resistance: 0.8385, 0.8415, 0.8450, 0.8480, 0.8500 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 0.8355 targeting 0.8415, 0.8480 then 0.8535 and stop-loss with four-hour closing below 0.8270 might be appropriate

Daily Outlook GBP/USD

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.16; (P) 144.27; (R1) 144.97; More....
The pull back from 147.97 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 140.48) and below. Though, we'd expect strong support from 139.25 (38.2% retracement of 125.67 to 147.97 at 139.45 and bring rebound. Recent rally is still expected to continue after the corrective price actions complete. Break of 147.97 will target 150 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has completed at 116.83 already. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). But rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.

Introducing Fibonacci (lesson 8)

Statue of Leonardo Fibonacci, Pisa, Italy. The inscription reads, "A. Leonardo Fibonacci, Insigne Matematico Piisano del Secolo XII." Photo by Robert R. Prechter, Sr.  HISTORICAL AND MATHEMATICAL BACKGROUND OF THE WAVE PRINCIPLE The Fibonacci (pronounced fib-eh-nah´-chee) sequence of numbers was discovered (actually rediscovered) by Leonardo Fibonacci da Pisa, a thirteenth century mathematician. We will outline the historical background of this amazing man and then discuss more fully the sequence (technically it is a sequence and not a series) of numbers that bears his name. When Elliott wrote Nature's Law, he referred specifically to the Fibonacci sequence as the mathematical basis for the Wave Principle. It is sufficient to state at this point that the stock market has a propensity to demonstrate a form that can be aligned with the form present in the Fibonacci sequence. (For a further discussion of the mathematics behind the Wave Principle, see "Mathematical Basis of Wave Theory," by Walter E. White, in New Classics Library's forthcoming book.) In the early 1200s, Leonardo Fibonacci of Pisa, Italy published his famous Liber Abacci (Book of Calculation) which introduced to Europe one of the greatest mathematical discoveries of all time, namely the decimal system, including the positioning of zero as the first digit in the notation of the number scale. This system, which included the familiar symbols 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, became known as the Hindu-Arabic system, which is now universally used. Under a true digital or place-value system, the actual value represented by any symbol placed in a row along with other symbols depends not only on its basic numerical value but also on its position in the row, i.e., 58 has a different value from 85. Though thousands of years earlier the Babylonians and Mayas of Central America separately had developed digital or place-value systems of numeration, their methods were awkward in other respects. For this reason, the Babylonian system, which had been the first to use zero and place values, was never carried forward into the mathematical systems of Greece, or even Rome, whose numeration comprised the seven symbols I, V, X, L, C, D, and M, with non-digital values assigned to those symbols. Addition, subtraction, multiplication and division in a system using these non-digital symbols is not an easy task, especially when large numbers are involved. Paradoxically, to overcome this problem, the Romans used the very ancient digital device known as the abacus. Because this instrument is digitally based and contains the zero principle, it functioned as a necessary supplement to the Roman computational system. Throughout the ages, bookkeepers and merchants depended on it to assist them in the mechanics of their tasks. Fibonacci, after expressing the basic principle of the abacus in Liber Abacci, started to use his new system during his travels. Through his efforts, the new system, with its easy method of calculation, was eventually transmitted to Europe.  Gradually the old usage of Roman numerals was replaced with the Arabic numeral system. The introduction of the new system to Europe was the first important achievement in the field of mathematics since the fall of Rome over seven hundred years before. Fibonacci not only kept mathematics alive during the Middle Ages, but laid the foundation for great developments in the field of higher mathematics and the related fields of physics, astronomy and engineering.

Koreksi Emas Picu Minat Beli

 

Monexnews - Harga emas di pasar Asia turun $2.10 menjadi $1,687.80/ons. Hari Senin (26/03) emas gain sebesar 1.6% setelah pimpinan Fed, Ben S Bernanke mengulangi pernyataan untuk mendukung kebijakan moneter akomodatif bank sentral.

Prospek langkah pelonggaran moneter AS mendorong aksi beli emas di tengah ketidak pastian mengenai kondisi ekonomi dan inflasi jangka panjang, menurut pemain pasar yang bermarkas di Singapura. Sementara kecemasan atas krisis hutang zona Eropa akan menjadi faktor kunci bagi pergerakan emas menuju rekor tinggi tahun lalu, katanya. EUR/USD, di 1.3353. Euro menjauhi level rendah sebelumnya di 1.3200. Hal ini menegaskan pergerakan emas terbantu oleh pelemahan USD.

(din)

Target Emas $1725 Karena Bernanke

 

Ariston TjendraHead of Research and Analysis

Monexnews - Apa yang terjadi di pasar keuangan tadi malam sungguh mengejutkan pasar. Gubernur Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat Ben Bernanke mengeluarkan pernyataan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi yang terjadi di AS saat ini masih jauh dari stabil dan untuk menjaga kestabilan pemulihan ekonomi, AS masih membutuhkan tingkat suku bunga rendah dan program stimulus pembelian aset yang besar (atau yang sering disebut pelonggaran kuantitatif).  Bernanke menilai bahwa turunnya tingkat pengangguran masih belum stabil, agar penurunannya berlanjut memerlukan pertumbuhan produksi dan permintaan konsumen dan bisnis yang lebih cepat. Untuk itu diperlukan kebijakan akomodatif lanjutan.

Pernyataan ini langsung ditanggapi pasar bahwa kebijakan pelonggaran kuantitatif ketiga (QE 3) masih berpeluang untuk diterapkan tahun ini. Padahal pada rapat kebijakan FOMC terakhir dan testimoni Ben Bernanke di depan komite perbankan parlemen tidak ada indikasi tersebut. Pada waktu itu sebagian besar pelaku pasar menilai kebijakan akomodatif tertutup rapat hingga akhir tahun ini.

Ben Bernanke, sejak krisis 2008 terjadi, telah memilih solusi untuk memulihkan perekonomian AS dengan menyediakan likuiditas berbiaya murah yang besar ke masyarakat. Dengan likuiditas murah tersebut diharapkan dapat menjadi modal yang bisa diputar di bisnis dan meningkatkan belanja konsumsi masyarakat AS. Kenaikan inflasi menjadi isu nomor dua bagi Fed saat ini. Pemulihan lapangan pekerjaan menjadi isu nomor satu. Oleh sebab itu, para pelaku pasar mengindikasikan bahwa pemulihan penurunan tingkat pengangguran saat ini menutup kemungkinan Fed memberlakukan QE 3 tahun ini.

Federal Reserve menjadikan yield obligasi pemerintah dengan tenor 10 dan 30 tahun menjadi benchmark tingkat suku bunga. Yield kedua obligasi tersebut belakangan ini terus meningkat sekitar 22,37% dan 13,12% sejak Bernanke melakukan testimoni di depan parlemen pada 29 Februari lalu dimana waktu itu dari testimoni Bernanke, para pelaku pasar menilai bahwa Fed tidak akan mengeluarkan QE3. Yield yang terus meningkat akan mengganggu program Fed. Ini kemungkinan yang menyebabkan Bernanke harus mengeluarkan pernyataan yang mengindikasikan QE 3 berpotensi dirilis agar yield kedua jenis obligasi ini turun.

Reaksinya sangat jelas terlihat di pasar. Dollar AS langsung melemah terhadap mata uang utama dunia. Sentimen minat terhadap resiko atau sering disebut risk appetite, langsung meningkat. Harga komoditi, indeks saham global langsung naik semalam dan bahkan bisa berlanjut pada sesi perdagangan hari ini.

Kebijakan pelonggaran kuantitatif notabene adalah kebijakan pembelian aset dengan mencetak uang baru. Ini akan memperbesar jumlah uang yang beredar di masyarakat dan tersedia dengan biaya murah. Tentunya sebagian uang ini akan dispekulasikan di pasar keuangan sehingga akan mendorong naik harga komoditas dan indeks saham. Likuiditas berlimpah juga akan meningkatkan prospek kenaikan inflasi.

Harga emas meroket cukup tinggi sesaat sesudah pengumuman dan hampir menyentuh level psikologis $1700 per troy ons. Sentimen positif dari pernyataan Bernanke akan mendukung kenaikan harga emas untuk beberapa hari ke depan dengan potensi target menuju area $1715 lalu ke $1725. Sementara support yang perlu diperhatikan adalah level $1670. Karena bila bergerak kembali di bawah level 1670, emas akan kembali melakukan konsolidasi antara $1634-1670. Resisten terdekat di $1700 per troy ons.

Practical Application 2

The ability to identify junctures is remarkable enough, but the Wave Principle is the only method of analysis which also provides guidelines for forecasting, as outlined in Lessons 10 through 15 and 20 through 25 of this course. Many of these guidelines are specific and can occasionally yield results of stunning precision. If indeed markets are patterned, and if those patterns have a recognizable geometry, then regardless of the variations allowed, certain price and time relationships are likely to recur. In fact, real world experience shows that they do.

It is our practice to try to determine in advance where the next move will likely take the market. One advantage of setting a target is that it gives a sort of backdrop against which to monitor the market's actual path. This way, you are alerted quickly when something is wrong and can shift your interpretation to a more appropriate one if the market does not do what is expected. If you then learn the reasons for your mistakes, the market will be less likely to mislead you in the future.

Still, no matter what your convictions, it pays never to take your eye off what is happening in the wave structure in real time. Although prediction of target levels well in advance can be done surprisingly often, such predictions are not required in order to make money in the stock market. Ultimately, the market is the message, and a change in behavior can dictate a change in outlook. All one really needs to know at the time is whether to be bullish, bearish or neutral, a decision that can sometimes be made with a swift glance at a chart.

Of the many approaches to stock market analysis, the Elliott Wave Principle, in our view, offers the best tool for identifying market turns as they are approached. If you keep an hourly chart, the fifth of the fifth of the fifth in a primary trend alerts you within hours of a major change in direction by the market. It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so. Elliott may not be the perfect formulation since the stock market is part of life and no formula can enclose it or express it completely. However, the Wave Principle is without a doubt the single most comprehensive approach to market analysis and, viewed in its proper light, delivers everything it promises.

Jepang Kembali Raih Trade Surplus

 

Monexnews - Jepang kembali mendapatkan trade surplus untuk bulan Februari, mengalahkan ekspektasi defisit saat pengiriman barang ke AS mengalami peningkatan. Jepang membukukan trade balance 32.9 miliar Yen (setara dengan $395 juta) di bulan Februari, setelah mengalami defisit sebesar 1.475 triliun Yen, dilaporkan Kementerian Keuangan pada hari Kamis.

Sebuah survey para ekonom yang dilaporkan oleh Dow Jones Newswire menunjukkan adanya ekspektasi defisit sebesar 110 Yen. Ekspor untuk bulan tersebut turun 2.7% dari tahun sebelumnya, mengalahkan ekspektasi kejatuhan sebesar 7.3%, sementara impor mengalami kenaikan 9.2%. Ekspor ke China mengalami kejatuhan sebesar 13.9% dari tahun sebelumnya, tetapi hal ini tersingkir oleh kenaikan ekspor sebesar 11.9%, walau nilai total pengiriman ke AS masih dibawah ke China.

Emas Menguat: China dan Data Eropa

Monexnews - Harga emas bergerak naik hari Kamis, tertahan di kisaran yang lebar saat para investor menantikan data manufaktur dari China dan Eropa guna memastikan kondisi perekonomian mereka, sementara sedikit melemahnya dollar AS memberikan dukungan.

Spot emas bergerak naik 0.1% menjadi $1,651.64 per troy ounce.

Kontrak emas AS tidak banyak mengalami pergerakan di level $1,651.80.

Penjualan perumahan AS mengalami kejatuhan untuk bulan Februari, tetapi revisi kenaikan untuk alur pergerakan harga danb kenaikan tahunan pertama kalinya dalam 15 bulan menunjukkan adanya perkembangan yang stabil di sektor perumahan.

Investor akan memusatkan perhatian kepada data PMI China menurut perkiraan HSBC, ditengah kekhawatiran mengenai tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi China.

(ar)

Potensi Koreksi EURUSD Berikan Peluang Buy on Weakness

Bias intraday masih bullish di jangka pendek menguji area 1.3290 - 1.3340, tembus lagi diatas area tersebut seharusnya dapat menambah tekanan bullish mengincar target area 1.3400.

Support terdekat tampak di area 1.3190, anjlok secara konsisten dan closing daily dibawah area tersebut seharusnya dapat memicu fase koreksi EURUSD kemungkinan menguji area support selanjutnya di kisaran 1.3095.

Skenario bearish double top masih terbuka peluang jika harga kembali anjlok dibawah area 1.3000, untuk mengincar target support kunci di kisaran 1.2970 & 1.2880. (Sap)

Practical Application

The Wave Principle is unparalleled in providing an overall perspective on the position of the market most of the time. Most important to individuals, portfolio managers and investment corporations is that the Wave Principle often indicates in advance the relative magnitude of the next period of market progress or regress. Living in harmony with those trends can make the difference between success and failure in financial affairs.
 

Despite the fact that many analysts do not treat it as such, the Wave Principle is by all means an objective study, or as Collins put it, "a disciplined form of technical analysis." Bolton used to say that one of the hardest things he had to learn was to believe what he saw. If the analyst does not believe what he sees, he is likely to read into his analysis what he thinks should be there for some other reason. At this point, his count becomes subjective. Subjective analysis is dangerous and destroys the value of any market approach.

What the Wave Principle provides is an objective means of assessing the relative probabilities of possible future paths for the market. At any time, two or more valid wave interpretations are usually acceptable by the rules of the Wave Principle. The rules are highly specific and keep the number of valid alternatives to a minimum. Among the valid alternatives, the analyst will generally regard as preferred the interpretation that satisfies the largest number of guidelines, and so on. As a result, competent analysts applying the rules and guidelines of the Wave Principle objectively should usually agree on the order of probabilities for various possible outcomes at any particular time. That order can usually be stated with certainty. Let no one assume, however, that certainty about the order of probabilities is the same as certainty about one specific outcome. Under only the rarest of circumstances does the analyst ever know exactly what the market is going to do. One must understand and accept that even an approach that can identify high odds for a fairly specific outcome will be wrong some of the time. Of course, such a result is a far better performance than any other approach to market forecasting provides.

Using Elliott, it is often possible to make money even when you are in error. For instance, after a minor low that you erroneously consider of major importance, you may recognize at a higher level that the market is vulnerable again to new lows. A clear-cut three-wave rally following the minor low rather than the necessary five gives the signal, since a three-wave rally is the sign of an upward correction. Thus, what happens after the turning point often helps confirm or refute the assumed status of the low or high, well in advance of danger.

Even if the market allows no such graceful exit, the Wave Principle still offers exceptional value. Most other approaches to market analysis, whether fundamental, technical or cyclical, have no good way of forcing a change of opinion if you are wrong. The Wave Principle, in contrast, provides a built-in objective method for changing your mind. Since Elliott Wave analysis is based upon price patterns, a pattern identified as having been completed is either over or it isn't. If the market changes direction, the analyst has caught the turn. If the market moves beyond what the apparently completed pattern allows, the conclusion is wrong, and any funds at risk can be reclaimed immediately. Investors using the Wave Principle can prepare themselves psychologically for such outcomes through the continual updating of the second best interpretation, sometimes called the "alternate count." Because applying the Wave Principle is an exercise in probability, the ongoing maintenance of alternative wave counts is an essential part of investing with it. In the event that the market violates the expected scenario, the alternate count immediately becomes the investor's new preferred count. If you're thrown by your horse, it's useful to land right atop another.

Of course, there are often times when, despite a rigorous analysis, the question may arise as to how a developing move is to be counted, or perhaps classified as to degree. When there is no clearly preferred interpretation, the analyst must wait until the count resolves itself, in other words, to "sweep it under the rug until the air clears," as Bolton suggested. Almost always, subsequent moves will clarify the status of previous waves by revealing their position in the pattern of the next higher degree. When subsequent waves clarify the picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%.

Learning the Basics

With a knowledge of the tools in Lessons 1 through 15, any dedicated student can perform expert Elliott Wave analysis. People who neglect to study the subject thoroughly or to apply the tools rigorously have given up before really trying. The best learning procedure is to keep an hourly chart and try to fit all the wiggles into Elliott Wave patterns, while keeping an open mind for all the possibilities. Slowly the scales should drop from your eyes, and you will continually be amazed at what you see. It is important to remember that while investment tactics always must go with the most valid wave count, knowledge of alternative possibilities can be extremely helpful in adjusting to unexpected events, putting them immediately into perspective, and adapting to the changing market framework. While the rigidities of the rules of wave formation are of great value in choosing entry and exit points, the flexibilities in the admissible patterns eliminate cries that whatever the market is doing now is "impossible." "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." Thus eloquently spoke Sherlock Holmes to his constant companion, Dr. Watson, in Arthur Conan Doyle's The Sign of Four. This one sentence is a capsule summary of what one needs to know to be successful with Elliott. The best approach is deductive reasoning. By knowing what Elliott rules will not allow, one can deduce that whatever remains must be the most likely course for the market. Applying all the rules of extensions, alternation, overlapping, channeling, volume and the rest, the analyst has a much more formidable arsenal than one might imagine at first glance. Unfortunately for many, the approach requires thought and work and rarely provides a mechanical signal. However, this kind of thinking, basically an elimination process, squeezes the best out of what Elliott has to offer and besides, it's fun! As an example of such deductive reasoning, take another look at Figure 1-14, reproduced below: Figure 1-14 Cover up the price action from November 17, 1976 forward. Without the wave labels and boundary lines, the market would appear as formless. But with the Wave Principle as a guide, the meaning of the structures becomes clear. Now ask yourself, how would you go about predicting the next movement? Here is Robert Prechter's analysis from that date, from a personal letter to A.J. Frost, summarizing a report he issued for Merrill Lynch the previous day: Enclosed you will find my current opinion outlined on a recent Trendline chart, although I use only hourly point charts to arrive at these conclusions. My argument is that the third Primary wave, begun in October of 1975, has not completed its course as yet, and that the fifth Intermediate wave of that Primary is now underway.  First and most important, I am convinced that October 1975 to March 1976 was so far a three-wave affair, not a five, and that only the possibility of a failure on May 11th could complete that wave as a five. However, the construction following that possible "failure"completely does not satisfy me as correct, since the first downleg to 956.45 would be of five waves and the entire ensuing construction is obviously a flat. Therefore, I think that we have been in a fourth corrective wave since March 24th. This corrective wave satisfies the requirements for an expanding triangle formation, which of course can only be a fourth wave. The trendlines concerned are uncannily accurate, as is the downside objective, obtained by multiplying the first important length of decline (March 24th to June 7th, 55.51 points) by 1.618 to obtain 89.82 points. 89.82 points from the orthodox high of the third Intermediate wave at 1011.96 gives a downside target of 922, which was hit last week (actual hourly low 920.62) on November 11th. This would suggest now a fifth Intermediate back to new highs, completing the third Primary wave. The only problem I can see with this interpretation is that Elliott suggests that fourth wave declines usually hold above the previous fourth wave decline of lesser degree, in this case 950.57 on February 17th, which of course has been broken on the downside. I have found, however, that this rule is not steadfast. The reverse symmetrical triangle formation should be followed by a rally only approximating the width of the widest part of the triangle. Such a rally would suggest 1020-1030 and fall far short of the trendline target of 1090-1100. Also, within third waves, the first and fifth subwaves tend toward equality in time and magnitude. Since the first wave (Oct. 75-Dec.75) was a 10% move in two months, this fifth should cover about 100 points (1020-1030) and peak in January 1977, again short of the trendline mark. Now uncover the rest of the chart to see how all these guidelines helped in assessing the market's likely path. Christopher Morley once said, "Dancing is a wonderful training for girls. It is the first way they learn to guess what a man is going to do before he does it." In the same way, the Wave Principle trains the analyst to discern what the market is likely to do before it does it. After you have acquired an Elliott "touch," it will be forever with you, just as a child who learns to ride a bicycle never forgets. At that point, catching a turn becomes a fairly common experience and not really too difficult. Most important, in giving you a feeling of confidence as to where you are in the progress of the market, a knowledge of Elliott can prepare you psychologically for the inevitable fluctuating nature of price movement and free you from sharing the widely practiced analytical error of forever projecting today's trends linearly into the future.

Microsoft Segera Selesaikan Windows 8

 

Monexnews - Microsoft Corp akan menyelesaikan proyek Windows 8 pada musim panas tahun ini, mempersiapkan kehadirannya untuk PC dan computer tablet dengan sistem operasi yang siap untuk dijual per Oktober, menurut sebuah sumber yang mengetahui informasi tersebut.

Awal peluncuran produk tersebut juga akan berjalan pada chip prosesor Intel Corp dan ARM Holdings PLC, yang akan mendukung kinerja kedua sistem chip tersebut,k dikatakan sumber tersebut, yang menolak untuk diidentifikasi terkait informasi yang bersifat rahasia tersebut.

Untuk mendukung teknologi ARM, Microsoft menggunakan prosesor yang sama untuk iPad dari Apple. Tetapi akan lebih sedikit dari 5 produk ARM yang tampil dalam peluncuran Windows 8 tersebut, dibandingkan dengan produk dari Intel yang berjumlah 40.

(ar)

EURUSD: Uji Resistance di 1.3243

 

Monexnews - Pergerakan EURUSD terlihat sedang menguji area resistan kuat dimana jika harga berhasil menembus resistan 1.3243 maka ada peluang resistan 1.3299 akan menjadi target pergerakan selanjutnya. Tetapi waspadai juga seiring indikator stochastic berada dalam kondisi bearish divergence maka ada kecenderungan harga akan bergerak ke bawah menuju support 1.3186.

(Fredy Rodo Tampubolon)

Daily Technical Analysis : EURUSD

The EURUSD had another volatile but indecisive movement last week. Price attempted to push lower but found a good support around 1.3000 and closed higher at 1.3172 on Friday. The double top bearish scenario remains intact and I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase but nearest term bias remains bullish testing 1.3200. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.3290 key resistance area. Immediate support is seen around 1.3130. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but would give another chance for the bearish scenario retesting 1.3000 key support area.

Harga Saham Apple Meroket ke $600 Jelang Launching IPAD Baru

Emiten saham Apple melonjak diatas level $600 di hari Kamis disebabkan oleh ekspektasi kenaikan penjualan smartphone dan komputer tablet Apple yang pesat.

Setelah mendapatkan hasil penjualan produk iPad 2 nya yang cukup laris, antrian para calon pembeli untuk membeli produk terbaru Apple, iPad 3 masih cukup panjang. Diperkirakan permintaan terhadap iPad 3 masih cukup tinggi sampai bulan April atau Mei.

Secara keseluruhan emiten saham ini juga telah menanjak secara konsisten dari atas $100 sejak 3 tahun lalu, dan masih berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan ke level $700. Saham Apple ini diminati oleh para investor akibat lonjakan penjualan dan laporan earnings yang solid.

Minat Investor Susut, Posisi Net Buy Emas Jatuh 20 Persen

 

Monexnews -

Emas melanjutkan pelemahan untuk tiga minggu berturut-turut seiring outlook ekonomi AS yang semakin cerah menyebabkan para investor memarkir dananya di aset selain Emas.

Permintaan para investor terhadap Emas semakin menyusut, dan hal ini menyebabkan pergerakan Emas masih terbatas dalam range-trading, dibandingkan aset berisiko lainnya.

Secara teknikal, Emas masih berpotensi lanjutkan konsolidasi di kisaran 1670 s.d 1635 hari ini, anjlok dibawah area 1635 baru bisa menambah tekanan bearish untuk menguji area strong support 1620. Adapun di sisi atasnya, masih dibutuhkan penembusan konsisten diatas area 1725 untuk merubah trend jangka pendek menjadi bullish.

Para dealer terpantau masih menunggu rilis laporan mingguan CFTC komitmen para trader di AS, yang dapat mencerminkan sentimen para investor terhadap komoditas AS. Laporan terakhir menunjukkan posisi net buy Emas berjangka sempat jatuh 20 persen pekan lalu, sekaligus merupakan penurunan posisi net buy terbesar sejak Agustus 2010.

Wave Tendencies

Because the tendencies discussed here are not inevitable, they are stated not as rules, but as guidelines. Their lack of inevitability nevertheless detracts little from their utility. For example, take a look at Figure 2-16, an hourly chart showing the first four Minor waves in the DJIA rally off the March 1, 1978 low. The waves are textbook Elliott from beginning to end, from the length of waves to the volume pattern (not shown) to the trend channels to the guideline of equality to the retracement by the "a" wave following the extension to the expected low for the fourth wave to the perfect internal counts to alternation to the Fibonacci time sequences to the Fibonacci ratio relationships embodied within. It might be worth noting that 914 would be a reasonable target in that it would mark a .618 retracement of the 1976-1978 decline.

 

Figure 2-16 (Click Image To Enlarge)

There are exceptions to guidelines, but without those, market analysis would be a science of exactitude, not one of probability. Nevertheless, with a thorough knowledge of the guide lines of wave structure, you can be quite confident of your wave count. In effect, you can use the market action to confirm the wave count as well as use the wave count to predict market action.

Notice also that Elliott Wave guidelines cover most aspects of traditional technical analysis, such as market momentum and investor sentiment. The result is that traditional technical analysis now has a greatly increased value in that it serves to aid the identification of the market's exact position in the Elliott Wave structure. To that end, using such tools is by all means encouraged.