Koreksi Emas Picu Minat Beli

 

Monexnews - Harga emas di pasar Asia turun $2.10 menjadi $1,687.80/ons. Hari Senin (26/03) emas gain sebesar 1.6% setelah pimpinan Fed, Ben S Bernanke mengulangi pernyataan untuk mendukung kebijakan moneter akomodatif bank sentral.

Prospek langkah pelonggaran moneter AS mendorong aksi beli emas di tengah ketidak pastian mengenai kondisi ekonomi dan inflasi jangka panjang, menurut pemain pasar yang bermarkas di Singapura. Sementara kecemasan atas krisis hutang zona Eropa akan menjadi faktor kunci bagi pergerakan emas menuju rekor tinggi tahun lalu, katanya. EUR/USD, di 1.3353. Euro menjauhi level rendah sebelumnya di 1.3200. Hal ini menegaskan pergerakan emas terbantu oleh pelemahan USD.

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Target Emas $1725 Karena Bernanke

 

Ariston TjendraHead of Research and Analysis

Monexnews - Apa yang terjadi di pasar keuangan tadi malam sungguh mengejutkan pasar. Gubernur Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat Ben Bernanke mengeluarkan pernyataan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi yang terjadi di AS saat ini masih jauh dari stabil dan untuk menjaga kestabilan pemulihan ekonomi, AS masih membutuhkan tingkat suku bunga rendah dan program stimulus pembelian aset yang besar (atau yang sering disebut pelonggaran kuantitatif).  Bernanke menilai bahwa turunnya tingkat pengangguran masih belum stabil, agar penurunannya berlanjut memerlukan pertumbuhan produksi dan permintaan konsumen dan bisnis yang lebih cepat. Untuk itu diperlukan kebijakan akomodatif lanjutan.

Pernyataan ini langsung ditanggapi pasar bahwa kebijakan pelonggaran kuantitatif ketiga (QE 3) masih berpeluang untuk diterapkan tahun ini. Padahal pada rapat kebijakan FOMC terakhir dan testimoni Ben Bernanke di depan komite perbankan parlemen tidak ada indikasi tersebut. Pada waktu itu sebagian besar pelaku pasar menilai kebijakan akomodatif tertutup rapat hingga akhir tahun ini.

Ben Bernanke, sejak krisis 2008 terjadi, telah memilih solusi untuk memulihkan perekonomian AS dengan menyediakan likuiditas berbiaya murah yang besar ke masyarakat. Dengan likuiditas murah tersebut diharapkan dapat menjadi modal yang bisa diputar di bisnis dan meningkatkan belanja konsumsi masyarakat AS. Kenaikan inflasi menjadi isu nomor dua bagi Fed saat ini. Pemulihan lapangan pekerjaan menjadi isu nomor satu. Oleh sebab itu, para pelaku pasar mengindikasikan bahwa pemulihan penurunan tingkat pengangguran saat ini menutup kemungkinan Fed memberlakukan QE 3 tahun ini.

Federal Reserve menjadikan yield obligasi pemerintah dengan tenor 10 dan 30 tahun menjadi benchmark tingkat suku bunga. Yield kedua obligasi tersebut belakangan ini terus meningkat sekitar 22,37% dan 13,12% sejak Bernanke melakukan testimoni di depan parlemen pada 29 Februari lalu dimana waktu itu dari testimoni Bernanke, para pelaku pasar menilai bahwa Fed tidak akan mengeluarkan QE3. Yield yang terus meningkat akan mengganggu program Fed. Ini kemungkinan yang menyebabkan Bernanke harus mengeluarkan pernyataan yang mengindikasikan QE 3 berpotensi dirilis agar yield kedua jenis obligasi ini turun.

Reaksinya sangat jelas terlihat di pasar. Dollar AS langsung melemah terhadap mata uang utama dunia. Sentimen minat terhadap resiko atau sering disebut risk appetite, langsung meningkat. Harga komoditi, indeks saham global langsung naik semalam dan bahkan bisa berlanjut pada sesi perdagangan hari ini.

Kebijakan pelonggaran kuantitatif notabene adalah kebijakan pembelian aset dengan mencetak uang baru. Ini akan memperbesar jumlah uang yang beredar di masyarakat dan tersedia dengan biaya murah. Tentunya sebagian uang ini akan dispekulasikan di pasar keuangan sehingga akan mendorong naik harga komoditas dan indeks saham. Likuiditas berlimpah juga akan meningkatkan prospek kenaikan inflasi.

Harga emas meroket cukup tinggi sesaat sesudah pengumuman dan hampir menyentuh level psikologis $1700 per troy ons. Sentimen positif dari pernyataan Bernanke akan mendukung kenaikan harga emas untuk beberapa hari ke depan dengan potensi target menuju area $1715 lalu ke $1725. Sementara support yang perlu diperhatikan adalah level $1670. Karena bila bergerak kembali di bawah level 1670, emas akan kembali melakukan konsolidasi antara $1634-1670. Resisten terdekat di $1700 per troy ons.

Emas Menguat: China dan Data Eropa

Monexnews - Harga emas bergerak naik hari Kamis, tertahan di kisaran yang lebar saat para investor menantikan data manufaktur dari China dan Eropa guna memastikan kondisi perekonomian mereka, sementara sedikit melemahnya dollar AS memberikan dukungan.

Spot emas bergerak naik 0.1% menjadi $1,651.64 per troy ounce.

Kontrak emas AS tidak banyak mengalami pergerakan di level $1,651.80.

Penjualan perumahan AS mengalami kejatuhan untuk bulan Februari, tetapi revisi kenaikan untuk alur pergerakan harga danb kenaikan tahunan pertama kalinya dalam 15 bulan menunjukkan adanya perkembangan yang stabil di sektor perumahan.

Investor akan memusatkan perhatian kepada data PMI China menurut perkiraan HSBC, ditengah kekhawatiran mengenai tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi China.

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Minat Investor Susut, Posisi Net Buy Emas Jatuh 20 Persen

 

Monexnews -

Emas melanjutkan pelemahan untuk tiga minggu berturut-turut seiring outlook ekonomi AS yang semakin cerah menyebabkan para investor memarkir dananya di aset selain Emas.

Permintaan para investor terhadap Emas semakin menyusut, dan hal ini menyebabkan pergerakan Emas masih terbatas dalam range-trading, dibandingkan aset berisiko lainnya.

Secara teknikal, Emas masih berpotensi lanjutkan konsolidasi di kisaran 1670 s.d 1635 hari ini, anjlok dibawah area 1635 baru bisa menambah tekanan bearish untuk menguji area strong support 1620. Adapun di sisi atasnya, masih dibutuhkan penembusan konsisten diatas area 1725 untuk merubah trend jangka pendek menjadi bullish.

Para dealer terpantau masih menunggu rilis laporan mingguan CFTC komitmen para trader di AS, yang dapat mencerminkan sentimen para investor terhadap komoditas AS. Laporan terakhir menunjukkan posisi net buy Emas berjangka sempat jatuh 20 persen pekan lalu, sekaligus merupakan penurunan posisi net buy terbesar sejak Agustus 2010.

Wave Tendencies

Because the tendencies discussed here are not inevitable, they are stated not as rules, but as guidelines. Their lack of inevitability nevertheless detracts little from their utility. For example, take a look at Figure 2-16, an hourly chart showing the first four Minor waves in the DJIA rally off the March 1, 1978 low. The waves are textbook Elliott from beginning to end, from the length of waves to the volume pattern (not shown) to the trend channels to the guideline of equality to the retracement by the "a" wave following the extension to the expected low for the fourth wave to the perfect internal counts to alternation to the Fibonacci time sequences to the Fibonacci ratio relationships embodied within. It might be worth noting that 914 would be a reasonable target in that it would mark a .618 retracement of the 1976-1978 decline.

 

Figure 2-16 (Click Image To Enlarge)

There are exceptions to guidelines, but without those, market analysis would be a science of exactitude, not one of probability. Nevertheless, with a thorough knowledge of the guide lines of wave structure, you can be quite confident of your wave count. In effect, you can use the market action to confirm the wave count as well as use the wave count to predict market action.

Notice also that Elliott Wave guidelines cover most aspects of traditional technical analysis, such as market momentum and investor sentiment. The result is that traditional technical analysis now has a greatly increased value in that it serves to aid the identification of the market's exact position in the Elliott Wave structure. To that end, using such tools is by all means encouraged.

Emas: Peluang Koreksi Masih Terbuka

 

Monexnews - Harga emas akhirnya mencapai target medium 1636, dengan level terendah tampak di 1634. Penguatan hari Jumat lalu tidak mampu mengubah keseluruhan tren turun. Kami melihat target penting selanjutnya di kisaran 1620-1625. Pada level tersebut, pemain bullish emas jangka menengah kemungkinan bermain lagi. Mereka masih berasumsi bahwa trend bullish jangka panjang akan dimulai pada level 1522.

Untuk hari ini, selama emas bertahan di bawah 1654, potensi penurunan lebih lanjut ke 1620-1625 tidak tertutup. Indikator oversold jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa support 1620-25 sangat penting sebelum harga rebound lagi. Kapanpun emas naik ke atas 1654, bisa disimpulkan bahwa level bottom temporer sudah terkonfirmasi. Pergerakan langsung ke bawah 1620 akan membuka jalan ke 1605 dan 1591-1597. Resistance jangka pendek berada di 1654, 1658, 1662 dan 1672. Salam trading!



Disclaimer : This commentary above is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party for the accuracy of this commentary.Trade at your own risk.
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Bargain Hunting Coba Redam Kejatuhan Emas

 

Monexnews - Emas kembali berada di bawah tekanan kuat Dollar AS dalam sesi perdagangan terakhir pekan ini, meskipun buy on dips yang terus dilancarkan investor coba meredam pelemahan logam mulai ini lebih jauh.

Saat ini Emas ditawarkan sekitar 0,4% lebih rendah pada kisaran $1715/oz, setelah sempat menyentuh level tertinggi harian di $1724.05/oz.

Menurut analis FastMarkets, William Adams, Emas kemungkinan masih akan bergerak choppy hingga beberapa sesi ke depan setelah terhantam aksi jual kuat pada Rabu lalu. Dengan tekanan bearish yang masih nampak tersisa, membuat harga emas masih berpotensi kekmbali terperosok untuk menguji zona support di $1.688-1.680.

Dari sisi fundamental, analis Barclays Capital menilai rendahnya tingkat suku bunga, kecemasan inflasi jangka panjang dan ketidakpastian berkepanjangan mengenai krisis hutang tetap akan menyediakan dukungan positif bagi Emas. Sebaliknya, penguatan Dollar, sentimen resiko dan profit taking kemungkinan masih akan bertindak sebagai penghambat kenaikan harga. (vid)

Emas Anjlok 5% Karena Bernanke, Potensi Rebound Ke 1737

Monexnews - Emas anjlok 5% Rabu malam (29/02) diduga karena testimoni Gubernur Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke di hadapan komite jasa keuangan Kongres AS tidak memberikan indikasi yang jelas mengenai kemungkinan lanjutan stimulus ekonomi AS dan gambaran outlook inflasi yang tidak akan tinggi.

Harga emas berhasil meraih level tertinggi tahun ini di kisaran $1790 per troy ons. Namun akhirnya melorot tajam akibat testimoni Fed dan hasil LTRO ECB. Harga emas terjerembab hingga level $1686 per troy ons.

Pagi ini harga emas berhasil melakukan rebound hingga ke level $1719 per troy ons atau baru naik sekitar 1,35%. Apabila emas berhasil bertahan di sekitar $1704-1719, harga emas berpotensi untuk meneruskan penguatannya hingga $1737 per troy ons hari ini.

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Emas: Waspadai Psikologis 1800

Monexnews - Harga emas masih melaju hari ini. Kegagalan menembus 1760 sempat mengecewakan investor jual. Pemecahan ke atas 1788 kemarin tidak mengejutkan di tengah pelemahan USD. Formasi atas jangka pendek masih belum tertutup. Jika mampu bertahan di atas 1780, kemungkinan menuju 1797-1804 masih terbuka. Hanya bila melampaui 1804 dengan penutupan di atas level mingguan, maka perpanjangan rally terkonfirmasi. Kami masih memperkirakan kisaran 1797-1804 akan menentukan adanya penguatan baru. Namun trader komersil masih memegang posisi jual bersih seraya mewaspadai pergerakan ke level 1800. Support intraday berada di 1780,1770 dan 1755-1760. Jatuh ke bawah 1755, target 1736 kami akan terpenuhi. Salam trading!

 

Disclaimer : This commentary above is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party for the accuracy of this commentary.Trade at your own risk.
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Volume

Elliott used volume as a tool for verifying wave counts and in projecting extensions. He recognized that in any bull market, volume has a natural tendency to expand and contract with the speed of price change. Late in a corrective phase, a decline in volume often indicates a decline in selling pressure. A low point in volume often coincides with a turning point in the market. In normal fifth waves below Primary degree, volume tends to be less than in third waves. If volume in an advancing fifth wave of less than Primary degree is equal to or greater than that in the third wave, an extension of the fifth is in force. While this outcome is often to be expected anyway if the first and third waves are about equal in length, it is an excellent warning of those rare times when both a third and a fifth wave are extended.

 

At Primary degree and greater, volume tends to be higher in an advancing fifth wave merely because of the natural long term growth in the number of participants in bull markets. Elliott noted, in fact, that volume at the terminal point of a bull market above Primary degree tends to run at an all-time high. Finally, as discussed earlier, volume often spikes briefly at points of throw-over at the peak of fifth waves, whether at a trend channel line or the terminus of a diagonal triangle. (Upon occasion, such points can occur simultaneously, as when a diagonal triangle fifth wave terminates right at the upper parallel of the channel containing the price action of one larger degree.) In addition to these few valuable observations, we have expanded upon the importance of volume in various sections of this course.

The "Right Look"

The overall appearance of a wave must conform to the appropriate illustration. Although any five-wave sequence can be forced into a three-wave count by labeling the first three subdivisions as one wave "A" as shown in Figure 2-13, it is incorrect to do so. The Elliott system would break down if such contortions were allowed. A long wave three with the end of wave four terminating well above the top of wave one must be classified as a five-wave sequence. Since wave A in this hypothetical case is composed of three waves, wave B would be expected to drop to about the start of wave A, as in a flat correction, which it clearly does not. While the internal count of a wave is a guide to its classification, the right overall shape is, in turn, often a guide to its correct internal count. 

Figure 2-13

The "right look" of a wave is dictated by all the considerations we have outlined so far in the first two chapters. In our experience, we have found it extremely dangerous to allow our emotional involvement with the market to let us accept wave counts that reflect disproportionate wave relationships or misshapen patterns merely on the basis that the Wave Principle's patterns are somewhat elastic.

Emas: $1800 Tinggal Menunggu Waktu

 

Monexnews - Harga emas masih terpantau kuat di awal pekan (27/04). Kombinasi antara sentimen investor dan minat safe haven telah memperkuat posisi logam. 

Tensi politik tinggi di Iran dan Syaria membuat investor cemas dan mengalihkan aset ke emas. Spot emas kini terpantau di $1,775.40 per troy ounce atau naik $1.80 dibanding level penutupan sebelumnya, dan menguat 3.1% ketimbang level pembukaan hari Senin.

Di tengah sentimen positif, traders dan analis memperkirakan harga berpeluang melampaui $1,800 dalam waktu dekat. "Level penting berikutnya ada di high bulan November lalu, $1,800," ulas Mitsui Global Precious Metals dalam hasil penelitiannya. Traders menetapkan support kuat di sekitar $1,750, seraya menyebut aksi beli di Asia akan menjaga emas di atas level itu dalam waktu dekat.

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Emas: Overbought Picu Koreksi

Monexnews - Harga emas masih menguat namun indikator 'overbought' membatasi momentum kenaikan. Setiap penembusan ke atas cenderung temporer dan kemungkinan koreksi justru terbuka lebar. Hambatan pada pola kenaikan di time frame kecil mendukung prediksi ini. Jika diperdagangkan ke bawah 1772, maka akan membuka jalan minimum ke 1765 dengan potensi koreksi lebih lanjut menuju 1749-1752 dan 1734-1736. Resistance intraday terletak di 1780, 1788 dan 1795-1797. Kami berpendapat bahwa emas akan berbalik turun. Salam Trading!

Penulis: EW Benny - Analis Teknikal yang berbasis di Dublin, Irlandia

Disclaimer : This commentary above is written for general information only.No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party for the accuracy of this commentary.Trade at your own risk.

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More Guidelines

Scale

 

The larger the degree, the more necessary a semilog scale usually becomes. On the other hand, the virtually perfect channels that were formed by the 1921-1929 market on semilog scale (see Figure 2-11) and the 1932-1937 market on arithmetic scale (see Figure 2-12) indicate that waves of the same degree will form the correct Elliott trend channel only when plotted selectively on the appropriate scale. On arithmetic scale, the 1920s bull market accelerates beyond the upper boundary, while on semilog scale the 1930s bull market falls far short of the upper boundary. Aside from this difference in channeling, these two waves of Cycle dimension are surprisingly similar: they create nearly the same multiples in price (six times and five times respectively), they both contain extended fifth waves, and the peak of the third wave is the same percentage gain above the bottom in each case. The essential difference between the two bull markets is the shape and time length of each individual subwave.

Figure 2-11

Figure 2-12

At most, we can state that the necessity for semilog scale indicates a wave that is in the process of acceleration, for whatever mass psychological reasons. Given a single price objective and a specific length of time allotted, anyone can draw a satisfactory hypothetical Elliott Wave channel from the same point of origin on both arithmetic and semilog scale by adjusting the slope of the waves to fit. Thus, the question of whether to expect a parallel channel on arithmetic or semilog scale is still unresolved as far as developing a definite tenet on the subject. If the price development at any point does not fall neatly within two parallel lines on the scale (either arithmetic or semilog) you are using, switch to the other scale in order to observe the channel in correct perspective. To stay on top of all developments, the analyst should always use both.

Channeling Technique

Elliott noted that parallel trend channels typically mark the upper and lower boundaries of impulse waves, often with dramatic precision. The analyst should draw them in advance to assist in determining wave targets and provide clues to the future development of trends.

 

The initial channeling technique for an impulse requires at least three reference points. When wave three ends, connect the points labeled "1" and "3," then draw a parallel line touching the point labeled "2," as shown in Figure 2-8. This construction provides an estimated boundary for wave four. (In most cases, third waves travel far enough that the starting point is excluded from the final channel's touch points.)

Figure 2-8 

If the fourth wave ends at a point not touching the parallel, you must reconstruct the channel in order to estimate the boundary for wave five. First connect the ends of waves two and four. If waves one and three are normal, the upper parallel most accurately forecasts the end of wave five when drawn touching the peak of wave three, as in Figure 2-9. If wave three is abnormally strong, almost vertical, then a parallel drawn from its top may be too high. Experience has shown that a parallel to the baseline that touches the top of wave one is then more useful, as in the illustration of the rise in the price of gold bullion from August 1976 to March 1977 (see Figure 6-12). In some cases, it may be useful to draw both potential upper boundary lines to alert you to be especially attentive to the wave count and volume characteristics at those levels and then take appropriate action as the wave count warrants.

Figure 2-9

Figure 6-12

Throw-over

Within parallel channels and the converging lines of diagonal triangles, if a fifth wave approaches its upper trendline on declining volume, it is an indication that the end of the wave will meet or fall short of it. If volume is heavy as the fifth wave approaches its upper trendline, it indicates a possible penetration of the upper line, which Elliott called "throw-over." Near the point of throw-over, a fourth wave of small degree may trend sideways immediately below the parallel, allowing the fifth then to break it in a final gust of volume.

Throw-overs are occasionally telegraphed by a preceding "throw-under," either by wave 4 or by wave two of 5, as suggested by the drawing shown as Figure 2-10. They are confirmed by an immediate reversal back below the line. Throw-overs also occur, with the same characteristics, in declining markets. 

Elliott correctly warned that throw-overs at large degrees cause difficulty in identifying the waves of smaller degree during the throw-over, as smaller degree channels are sometimes penetrated on the upside by the final fifth wave. Examples of throw-overs shown earlier in this course can be found in Figures 1-17 and 1-19.

Figure 2-10

Channeling (lesson 6)

Wave Equality

One of the guidelines of the Wave Principle is that two of the motive waves in a five-wave sequence will tend toward equality in time and magnitude. This is generally true of the two non-extended waves when one wave is an extension, and it is especially true if the third wave is the extension. If perfect equality is lacking, a .618 multiple is the next likely relationship (the use of ratios is covered in Lessons 16-25).

When waves are larger than Intermediate degree, the price relationships usually must be stated in percentage terms. Thus, within the entire extended Cycle wave advance from 1942 to 1966, we find that Primary wave [1] traveled 120 points, a gain of 129%, in 49 months, while Primary wave [5] traveled 438 points, a gain of 80% (.618 times the 129% gain), in 40 months (see Figure 5-3), far different from the 324% gain of the third Primary wave, which lasted 126 months.

When the waves are of Intermediate degree or less, the price equality can usually be stated in arithmetic terms, since the percentage lengths will also be nearly equivalent. Thus, in the year-end rally of 1976, we find that wave 1 traveled 35.24 points in 47 market hours while wave 5 traveled 34.40 points in 47 market hours. The guideline of equality is often extremely accurate.

Charting the Waves

A. Hamilton Bolton always kept an "hourly close" chart, i.e., one showing the end-of-hour prices, as do the authors. Elliott himself certainly followed the same practice, since in The Wave Principle he presents an hourly chart of stock prices from February 23 to March 31, 1938. Every Elliott Wave practitioner, or anyone interested in the Wave Principle, will find it instructive and useful to plot the hourly fluctuations of the DJIA, which are published by The Wall Street JournalBarron's. and It is a simple task that requires only a few minutes' work a week. Bar charts are fine but can be misleading by revealing fluctuations that occur near the time changes for each bar but not those that occur within the time for the bar. Actual print figures must be used on all plots. The so-called "opening" and "theoretical intraday" figures published for the Dow averages are statistical inventions that do not reflect the averages at any particular moment. Respectively, these figures represent a sum of the opening prices, which can occur at different times, and of the daily highs or lows of each individual stock in the average regardless of the time of day each extreme occurs.

The foremost aim of wave classification is to determine where prices are in the stock market's progression. This exercise is easy as long as the wave counts are clear, as in fast-moving, emotional markets, particularly in impulse waves, when minor movements generally unfold in an uncomplicated manner. In these cases, short term charting is necessary to view all subdivisions. However, in lethargic or choppy markets, particularly in corrections, wave structures are more likely to be complex and slow to develop. In these cases, longer term charts often effectively condense the action into a form that clarifies the pattern in progress. With a proper reading of the Wave Principle, there are times when sideways trends can be forecasted (for instance, for a fourth wave when wave two is a zigzag). Even when anticipated, though, complexity and lethargy are two of the most frustrating occurrences for the analyst. Nevertheless, they are part of the reality of the market and must be taken into account. The authors highly recommend that during such periods you take some time off from the market to enjoy the fruits of your hard work. You can't "wish" the market into action; it isn't listening. When the market rests, do the same.

The correct method for tracking the stock market is to use semilogarithmic chart paper, since the market's history is sensibly related only on a percentage basis. The investor is concerned with percentage gain or loss, not the number of points traveled in a market average. For instance, ten points in the DJIA in 1980 meant nothing, a one percent move. In the early 1920s, ten points meant a ten percent move, quite a bit more important. For ease of charting, however, we suggest using semilog scale only for long term plots, where the difference is especially noticeable. Arithmetic scale is quite acceptable for tracking hourly waves since a 300 point rally with the DJIA at 5000 is not much different in percentage terms from a 300 point rally with the DJIA at 6000. Thus, channeling techniques work acceptably well on arithmetic scale with shorter term moves.

Wave Extensions

Example #4: The 1974 Bear Market Low

 

The final decline into 1974, ending the 1966-1974 Cycle degree wave IV correction of the entire wave III rise from 1942, brought the averages down to the area of the previous fourth wave of lesser degree (Primary wave[ 4]). Again, Figure 5-3 shows what happened. 

Our analysis of small degree wave sequences over the last twenty years further validates the proposition that the usual limitation of any bear market is the travel area of the preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree, particularly when the bear market in question is itself a fourth wave. However, in a clearly reasonable modification of the guideline, it is often the case that if the first second wave in a sequence extends, the correction following the fifth wave will have as a typical limit the bottom of the wave of lesser degree. For example, the decline into March 1978 in the DJIA bottomed exactly at the low of the second wave in March 1975, which followed an extended first wave off the December 1974 low.

On occasion, flat corrections or triangles, particularly those following extensions (see Example #3), will barely fail to reach into the fourth wave area. Zigzags, on occasion, will cut deeply and move down into the area of the second wave of lesser degree, although this almost exclusively occurs when the zigzags are themselves second waves. "Double bottoms" are sometimes formed in this manner. 

Behavior Following Fifth Wave Extensions

The most important empirically derived rule that can be distilled from our observations of market behavior is that when the fifth wave of an advance is an extension, the ensuing correction will be sharp and find support at the level of the low of wave two of the extension. Sometimes the correction will end there, as illustrated in Figure 2-6. Although a limited number of real life examples exist, the precision with which "A" waves have reversed at the level of the low of wave two of the preceding fifth wave extension is remarkable. 

Figure 2-7 is an illustration involving an expanded flat correction. (For future reference, please make a note of two real-life examples that we will show in charts of upcoming lessons. An example involving a zigzag can be found in Figure 5-3 at the low of wave [a] of II, and an example involving an expanded flat can be found in Figure 2-16 at the low of wave a of A of 4. As you will see in Figure 5-3, wave A of (IV) bottoms near wave (2) of [5], which is an extension within wave V from 1921 to 1929.)

Since the low of the second wave of an extension is commonly in or near the price territory of the immediately preceding fourth wave of one larger degree, this guideline implies behavior similar to that for the preceding guideline. It is notable for its precision, however. Additional value is provided by the fact that fifth wave extensions are typically followed by swift retracements. Their occurrence, then, is an advance warning of a dramatic reversal to a specific level, a powerful combination of knowledge. This guideline does not apply separately to fifth wave extensions of fifth wave extensions.

Figure 2-6

Figure 2-7

Forecasting Corrective Waves

Depth of Corrective Waves (Bear Market Limitations)   No market approach other than the Wave Principle gives as satisfactory an answer to the question, "How far down can a bear market be expected to go?" The primary guideline is that corrections, especially when they themselves are fourth waves, tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus. Example #1: The 1929-1932 Bear Market The chart of stock prices adjusted to constant dollars developed by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles shows a contracting triangle as wave (IV). Its lows bottom within the area of the previous fourth wave of Cycle degree, an expanding triangle (see chart below). Example #2: The 1942 Bear Market Low In this case, the Cycle degree wave II bear market from 1937 to 1942, a zigzag, terminates within the area of Primary wave [4] of the bull market from 1932 to 1937 (see Figure 5-3). Figure 5-3 Example #3: The 1962 Bear Market Low The wave [4] plunge in 1962 brought the averages down to just above the 1956 high of the five-wave Primary sequence from 1949 to 1959. Ordinarily, the bear would have reached into the zone of wave (4), the fourth wave correction within wave [3]. This narrow miss nevertheless illustrates why this guideline is not a rule. The preceding strong third wave extension and the shallow A wave and strong B wave within [4] indicated strength in the wave structure, which carried over into the moderate net depth of the correction (see Figure 5-3).

Emas: Tahun Baru, Rally Baru

Monexnews - Meski harga emas turun dalam beberapa pekan terakhir, tidak berarti prospek permintaan fisik ikut tergerus. Aspek sosial budaya negara konsumen mendukung penguatan harga lebih lanjut.

Penurunan harga pekan lalu ternyata cukup merangsang minat beli emas, baik dari Timur Tengah, Eropa maupun Asia. Beberapa dealer besar mencatat limpahan permintaan dan sedikit sekali perintah penjualan.

Tahun baru China

Demand emas fisik cenderung dipengaruhi oleh faktor musiman. Harga emas batangan premium di Singapura dan Hong Kong terpantau naik dibanding pekan lalu. Menjelang libur tahun baru lunar, tingkat permintaan lazimnya melonjak. Demikian pula halnya di India, yang juga memiliki masa peringatan hari raya sendiri.

Volume permintaan konsumen ritel dari China sangat menentukan pergerakan harga. Meski tingkat permintaan diprediksi tidak sebagus tahun lalu, momen tahun baru selalu berimbas pada kenaikan demand signifikan. Societe Generale mencatat bahwa arus transaksi emas Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) sudah mencapai rekor tertinggi kemarin (20/12). "Rata-rata transaksi harian adalah 6,5 ton di bulan November, namun naik sampai 11,5 ton sejak 12 Desember lalu," ulas Societe. Jika dianalisa lebih lanjut, permintaan melonjak tepat di saat harga jatuh ke bawah $1,700 per ons. Artinya transaksi harian di SGE sudah meroket 77% dari level bulan November. Pengaruh dari China sejatinya akan lebih besar dalam hitungan hari mendatang.

Hari ini, Goldman Sachs memaparkan proyeksi harga emas untuk tiga bulan ke depan di $1,785. Sedangkan proyeksi harga untuk enam bulan adalah $1,840 dan 12 bulan ke depan di $1,940. Ekspektasi itu cukup realistis, mengingat harga saat ini sudah pulih ke atas psikologis $1,600 per ons. 

Jika ditilik lebih jauh, beberapa faktor berikut berpotensi menopang harga dalam beberapa bulan ke depan:

- Selama suku bunga tetap rendah dan tren bailout mengemuka, maka tidak ada alasan bagi emas untuk turun harga.

- Solusi krisis memang sedang diupayakan oleh pejabat tinggi Eropa. Angka triliunan euro siap digelontorkan, baik oleh Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) maupun Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) dan the Fed. Namun, siapa yang akan mem-bailout Jepang, Inggris dan Amerika Serikat? Padahal ekonomi ketiga negara ini tengah flat dan beban hutang jangka panjang juga sangat besar.

- Penyeimbangan rasio hutang secara teoritis tidak bisa benar-benar tuntas dengan membuat hutang baru. Terlepas dari struktur apapun yang dipakai, bailout tetaplah sebuah pinjaman yang harus dilunasi kelak.

- Perbankan menjadi sektor yang memiliki penyakit kronis akibat krisis. Mulai dari kewajiban menerima kerugian aset obligasi negara, kebangkrutan dan pengetatan aturan sistem perbankan. Semua beban itu memiliki efek berantai yang kian mempersempit peluang bank untuk meraih keseimbangan neraca.

- Konflik kepentingan antara golongan politik, baik di Eropa maupun AS. Bisa terlihat dari bagaimana Franco-German gagal meluluhkan hati Inggris untuk menyepakati aturan fiskal bersama awal bulan ini. Atau pertentangan partai Demokrat dan Republik dalam menyikapi beban hutang Amerika. Belum lagi pengaruh ketegangan politik dari wilayah, seperti Timur Tengah dan Korea Utara.

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Alternation within Corrective Waves

If a large correction begins with a flat a-b-c construction for wave A, expect a zigzag a-b-c formation for wave B (see Figure 2-2), and vice versa (see Figure 2-3). With a moment's thought, it is obvious that this occurrence is sensible, since the first illustration reflects an upward bias in both subwaves while the second reflects a downward bias. Figure 2-2 Figure 2-3 Quite often, if a large correction begins with a simple a-b-c zigzag for wave A, wave B will stretch out into a more intricately subdivided a-b-c zigzag to achieve a type of alternation, as in Figure 2-4. Sometimes wave C will be yet more complex, as in Figure 2-5. The reverse order of complexity is somewhat less common. Figure 2-4 Figure 2-5

GOLD MOMENT : Bidik Gain di Atas 20%!

Emas telah mencatat kenaikan lebih dari 20 % selama dua tahun terakhir (2009-2010). Sebgaai kilas balik, harga emas di taun 2011 berada dikisaran $1,300 per troyonce sebelum mengalami kenaikan tajam diatas 30% ke kisaran $1,900. Kemudian panik jual menyeret turun harga emas sebanyak 20% ke level $1,500 an. Patut diingat bahwa belum 2011 berakhir,tapi sanggupkah emas mencatat kenaikan tahunan lebih dari 20%?

Penguatan USD 

Emas tidak pernah dipanang negatif oleh investor melainkan hanya dipakai sebagai sumber dana sementara untuk memproteksi kerugian. Penurunan harga justru memberi kesempatan investor untuk membeli emas di harga yg lebih murah.

The End of the Year

Emas kemungkinan besar kembali membukukan kenaikan 20% dalam 1 tahun, mengulang kinerja 2 tahun sebelumnya. 

Rekomendasi : berdasarkan indikator Fibbonacci, emas memiliki support di area 1,666 (50%), harga saat ini sudah tembus 1,700. Jika harga tembus level 1,738 maka emas akan berpeluang menyentuh level 1,800. Namun jika bergerak dibawah 1,700, tampak peluang beli di area Fibo 50%, dan 61,8% (1,635). Support terkuat emas berada di Fibo 72,8% (1,600).