Emas Anjlok 5% Karena Bernanke, Potensi Rebound Ke 1737

Monexnews - Emas anjlok 5% Rabu malam (29/02) diduga karena testimoni Gubernur Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke di hadapan komite jasa keuangan Kongres AS tidak memberikan indikasi yang jelas mengenai kemungkinan lanjutan stimulus ekonomi AS dan gambaran outlook inflasi yang tidak akan tinggi.

Harga emas berhasil meraih level tertinggi tahun ini di kisaran $1790 per troy ons. Namun akhirnya melorot tajam akibat testimoni Fed dan hasil LTRO ECB. Harga emas terjerembab hingga level $1686 per troy ons.

Pagi ini harga emas berhasil melakukan rebound hingga ke level $1719 per troy ons atau baru naik sekitar 1,35%. Apabila emas berhasil bertahan di sekitar $1704-1719, harga emas berpotensi untuk meneruskan penguatannya hingga $1737 per troy ons hari ini.

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Wave Personality 2

1) First waves — As a rough estimate, about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it. The other fifty percent of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced. 2) Second waves — Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the advancement up to that time is eroded away by the time it ends. This is especially true of call option purchases, as premiums sink drastically in the environment of fear during second waves. At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bear market is back to stay. Second waves often produce downside non-confirmations and Dow Theory "buy spots," when low volume and volatility indicate a drying up of selling pressure. 3) Third waves — Third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable. Increasingly favorable fundamentals enter the picture as confidence returns. Third waves usually generate the greatest volume and price movement and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows, of course, that the third wave of a third wave, and so on, will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence. Such points invariably produce breakouts, "continuation" gaps, volume expansions, exceptional breadth, major Dow Theory trend confirmations and runaway price movement, creating large hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly gains in the market, depending on the degree of the wave. Virtually all stocks participate in third waves. Besides the personality of "B" waves, that of third waves produces the most valuable clues to the wave count as it unfolds. 4) Fourth waves — Fourth waves are predictable in both depth (see Lesson 11) and form, because by alternation they should differ from the previous second wave of the same degree. More often than not they trend sideways, building the base for the final fifth wave move. Lagging stocks build their tops and begin declining during this wave, since only the strength of a third wave was able to generate any motion in them in the first place. This initial deterioration in the market sets the stage for non-confirmations and subtle signs of weakness during the fifth wave. 5) Fifth waves — Fifth waves in stocks are always less dynamic than third waves in terms of breadth. They usually display a slower maximum speed of price change as well, although if a fifth wave is an extension, speed of price change in the third of the fifth can exceed that of the third wave. Similarly, while it is common for volume to increase through successive impulse waves at Cycle degree or larger, it usually happens below Primary degree only if the fifth wave extends. Otherwise, look for lesser volume as a rule in a fifth wave as opposed to the third. Market dabblers sometimes call for "blowoffs" at the end of long trends, but the stock market has no history of reaching maximum acceleration at a peak. Even if a fifth wave extends, the fifth of the fifth will lack the dynamism of what preceded it. During fifth advancing waves, optimism runs extremely high, despite a narrowing of breadth. Nevertheless, market action does improve relative to prior corrective wave rallies. For example, the year-end rally in 1976 was unexciting in the Dow, but it was nevertheless a motive wave as opposed to the preceding corrective wave advances in April, July and September, which, by contrast, had even less influence on the secondary indexes and the cumulative advance-decline line. As a monument to the optimism that fifth waves can produce, the market forecasting services polled two weeks after the conclusion of that rally turned in the lowest percentage of "bears," 4.5%, in the history of the recorded figures despite that fifth wave's failure to make a new high!

Emas: Waspadai Psikologis 1800

Monexnews - Harga emas masih melaju hari ini. Kegagalan menembus 1760 sempat mengecewakan investor jual. Pemecahan ke atas 1788 kemarin tidak mengejutkan di tengah pelemahan USD. Formasi atas jangka pendek masih belum tertutup. Jika mampu bertahan di atas 1780, kemungkinan menuju 1797-1804 masih terbuka. Hanya bila melampaui 1804 dengan penutupan di atas level mingguan, maka perpanjangan rally terkonfirmasi. Kami masih memperkirakan kisaran 1797-1804 akan menentukan adanya penguatan baru. Namun trader komersil masih memegang posisi jual bersih seraya mewaspadai pergerakan ke level 1800. Support intraday berada di 1780,1770 dan 1755-1760. Jatuh ke bawah 1755, target 1736 kami akan terpenuhi. Salam trading!

 

Disclaimer : This commentary above is written for general information only. No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party for the accuracy of this commentary.Trade at your own risk.
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Wave Personality (lesson 7)

The idea of wave personality is a substantial expansion of the Wave Principle. It has the advantages of bringing human behavior more personally into the equation and even more important, of enhancing the utility of standard technical analysis. The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.  The personality of each wave type is usually manifest whether the wave is of Grand Supercycle degree or Subminuette. These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one's present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations. As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that a knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. If the analyst recognizes the character of a single wave, he can often correctly interpret the complexities of the larger pattern. The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market picture, as illustrated in Figures 2-14 and 2-15. These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward. Figure 2-14

Volume

Elliott used volume as a tool for verifying wave counts and in projecting extensions. He recognized that in any bull market, volume has a natural tendency to expand and contract with the speed of price change. Late in a corrective phase, a decline in volume often indicates a decline in selling pressure. A low point in volume often coincides with a turning point in the market. In normal fifth waves below Primary degree, volume tends to be less than in third waves. If volume in an advancing fifth wave of less than Primary degree is equal to or greater than that in the third wave, an extension of the fifth is in force. While this outcome is often to be expected anyway if the first and third waves are about equal in length, it is an excellent warning of those rare times when both a third and a fifth wave are extended.

 

At Primary degree and greater, volume tends to be higher in an advancing fifth wave merely because of the natural long term growth in the number of participants in bull markets. Elliott noted, in fact, that volume at the terminal point of a bull market above Primary degree tends to run at an all-time high. Finally, as discussed earlier, volume often spikes briefly at points of throw-over at the peak of fifth waves, whether at a trend channel line or the terminus of a diagonal triangle. (Upon occasion, such points can occur simultaneously, as when a diagonal triangle fifth wave terminates right at the upper parallel of the channel containing the price action of one larger degree.) In addition to these few valuable observations, we have expanded upon the importance of volume in various sections of this course.

The "Right Look"

The overall appearance of a wave must conform to the appropriate illustration. Although any five-wave sequence can be forced into a three-wave count by labeling the first three subdivisions as one wave "A" as shown in Figure 2-13, it is incorrect to do so. The Elliott system would break down if such contortions were allowed. A long wave three with the end of wave four terminating well above the top of wave one must be classified as a five-wave sequence. Since wave A in this hypothetical case is composed of three waves, wave B would be expected to drop to about the start of wave A, as in a flat correction, which it clearly does not. While the internal count of a wave is a guide to its classification, the right overall shape is, in turn, often a guide to its correct internal count. 

Figure 2-13

The "right look" of a wave is dictated by all the considerations we have outlined so far in the first two chapters. In our experience, we have found it extremely dangerous to allow our emotional involvement with the market to let us accept wave counts that reflect disproportionate wave relationships or misshapen patterns merely on the basis that the Wave Principle's patterns are somewhat elastic.

Emas: $1800 Tinggal Menunggu Waktu

 

Monexnews - Harga emas masih terpantau kuat di awal pekan (27/04). Kombinasi antara sentimen investor dan minat safe haven telah memperkuat posisi logam. 

Tensi politik tinggi di Iran dan Syaria membuat investor cemas dan mengalihkan aset ke emas. Spot emas kini terpantau di $1,775.40 per troy ounce atau naik $1.80 dibanding level penutupan sebelumnya, dan menguat 3.1% ketimbang level pembukaan hari Senin.

Di tengah sentimen positif, traders dan analis memperkirakan harga berpeluang melampaui $1,800 dalam waktu dekat. "Level penting berikutnya ada di high bulan November lalu, $1,800," ulas Mitsui Global Precious Metals dalam hasil penelitiannya. Traders menetapkan support kuat di sekitar $1,750, seraya menyebut aksi beli di Asia akan menjaga emas di atas level itu dalam waktu dekat.

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Emas: Overbought Picu Koreksi

Monexnews - Harga emas masih menguat namun indikator 'overbought' membatasi momentum kenaikan. Setiap penembusan ke atas cenderung temporer dan kemungkinan koreksi justru terbuka lebar. Hambatan pada pola kenaikan di time frame kecil mendukung prediksi ini. Jika diperdagangkan ke bawah 1772, maka akan membuka jalan minimum ke 1765 dengan potensi koreksi lebih lanjut menuju 1749-1752 dan 1734-1736. Resistance intraday terletak di 1780, 1788 dan 1795-1797. Kami berpendapat bahwa emas akan berbalik turun. Salam Trading!

Penulis: EW Benny - Analis Teknikal yang berbasis di Dublin, Irlandia

Disclaimer : This commentary above is written for general information only.No liability by the writers, publisher or any third party for the accuracy of this commentary.Trade at your own risk.

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